Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 14, 2021

Futures saw mixed trade, the winter wheats eased. Compared with the catapult of the previous session, the rises elsewhere were small.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US7c/bu to 633.75c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 3.5c/bu to 611.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 4.5c/bu to 861.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €3.50/t to €202.50/t;
  • Corn September contract was up 6c/bu to 551.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 2c/bu to 1360c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$27.80/t to $916.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €5.75/t to €547.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.6 to 92.8;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.745;
  • CAD weaker at $1.251;
  • EUR weaker at $1.178;
  • ASX wheat July contract up $8/t to $310/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 unchanged at $300/t.

International

Grain markets settled down some in mixed trading last night, with Chicago wheat off seven cents, KC -3.50ó, Minny +4.5¢, and Matif +3.5€ on the earlier close.  Even Winnipeg futures came back during the day session after exploding up overnight – “only” ending up $27.8 (5.75€ Matif), beans were up two cents, and corn up six cents.  Crude oil has jumped a buck ten to $75.2 WTI / $76.5 Brent and the DOW as back 107 points on macro markets.  The AUD is four tenths weaker to 74.4¢, the CAD $1.251, and the EUR $1.178.

High earnings reported by JP Morgan and Goldman made headlines, though some are questioning if the bonanza is behind them with lower earnings in the last quarter and the slowing global post-corona recovery.

US Corn Belt weather forecasts still are bringing the nice widespread 1-2″ of rain for later this week, but extended maps have been swinging around a bit more. Last runs show still a little follow up moisture east but some models adding more heat back in.

Egypt’s GASC reported back again tonight for another wheat tender (mid-Sept). Markets are  looking to see how aggressive Russian offers will be after the last go round.

Black Sea harvest is continuing, with some increasing amounts of wheat coming off and more yield/quality reports as harvest picks up steam.  Quality generally is improving, after some poor/off grade earlier harvests, and yields still generally performing quite well.

Weather maps do remain fairly dry and warm across the eastern EU and Black Sea region bringing good harvest weather.

Ukraine’s ag ministry forecast a 29.5 million tonnes (Mt) wheat crop, up from 28.8Mt earlier and compares with USDA 30Mt.

SovEcon cut their crop estimate the other day though, down 2.3Mt to 82.3Mt, citing their expectations for poorer yields, relatively, as harvest moves up into more northern parts of the south and into the Volga.

Saudi Arabia’s SAGO continues on its privatization drive, announcing last night that they’d completed the sale of two more mills to private investor groups.

Australia

Local markets were firming yesterday after the WASDE report, but again it was still quiet locally with many already fairly well sold on new crop and evaluating how much forward coverage they want on their books.

Canola was seeing a spike upwards in bids with the Winnipeg board exploding overnight. The day session there pulled back off the intraday highs but we’re still pushing towards new settlement highs as the squeeze continues.

Weather maps are still turning drier into the end of the month, although this weekend storm for the east coast continues to solidify with 10-20 mm now forecast for a wide part of the cropping area.

 

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