The President of Turkey said he is working in a solution-focused way to extend the Black Sea grain deal, taking into account proposals from the presidents of Ukraine and Russia. It is reported that President Putin, in the current deal, believes Russia’s interests are not being taken into account. The UN evidently is proposing that Russia agree to an extension for now while they sort out the SWIFT connection.

The latest Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending 10 July noted that crops continued to progress this week with warm temperatures across the province. Canola was beginning to pod and wheat beginning to flower in many areas. Dry conditions were impacting parts of the province and many producers were hoping for rain immediately. A large decrease in soil moisture accompanied the warm weather this past week. Crop land topsoil moisture is currently 21pc adequate, 55pc short and 24pc very short and 48pc of canola crops are in good/excellent condition down from 66pc the previous fortnight.

Stratégie Grains revised EU production estimates downward in its July update, reflecting reduced yield prospects from the advancing harvests across Europe. It cut 2023-24 common wheat forecast by 2.5Mt to 126.2Mt (125.1Mt previous year). A larger than anticipated proportion of the crop was expected to be downgraded to feed due to wet conditions. Barley production was cut by 0.8Mt, to 47.1Mt (51.2Mt), mainly on reductions for Scandinavia and Germany where dry conditions adversely affected crops. Low yields were confirmed in Spain, tied to severe drought. Maize production forecast was cut by 0.4Mt, to 60.8Mt (52.2Mt), predominantly due to unfavourably dry weather across many growing regions. Yields potentially could decline even further, unless significant precipitation was received during July. 

US corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought fell by 3 points from the previous week to 64pc, the second consecutive weekly decline. Soybean crops in drought also declined by 3 points, falling to 57pc. 

Brazil’s Conab has pegged corn production at a record 127.8Mt, which is below the 133.6Mt average trade estimate.
According to the Rosario Board of Trade, wheat plantings in Argentina are estimated at 5.4 million hectares, 200,000 hectares less than estimated in June due to drought, with production now seen at 15.6Mt. Recent rains boosted planting in areas of La Pampa and Buenos Aires and improved crop conditions. Almost 80pc of the wheat crop has been planted. 

US private exporters reported sales of 315,704t of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 123,770t  food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.

Australia

We fell out of the back of the USDA report with the softer US cereals tone, but with a stronger veg oil market. ASX eastern wheat relaxed $4/t to $381/t while eastern canola values rallied $15-20/t on both current and new crop. With the firmer values, we saw selling liquidity pick up on canola and we expect to see this flow into today as the offshore rally continues.
The 8-day forecast is looking relatively dry for all winter cropping regions which will be welcome in southern growing areas but will be starting to pinch in central and northern WA where they have not had decent rain for an extended period now. 

According to ABS data Australia exported 448kt of canola in May, up 56pc from April, taking marketing year to date exports to 4.5Mt (4.27Mt previous year). Australia’s biggest markets in May were Pakistan (167kt), the UAE (149kt) and Japan (121kt).