Weather: Rinse, repeat – Weather remains broadly favourable for US row crops. Some increasing talk around harvest delays in Russia but nothing that is forcing markets higher .

Markets: The USDA report was another on for the bears – even corn which, on paper was slightly friendly but the market was having none of that. Trump is back on the tariff bandwagon and markets don’t like that uncertainty.

Australian Day Ahead: Futures down, AUD up – it will be a hard one for the markets locally today. The Vic mallee proved it can rain but not the soaker it needs. lower across the board for me today.

Offshore

Wheat

US wheat futures dropped sharply: spring wheat (MWU) fell US18c/bu, hard red winter (KWU) down 10.5c, and soft red winter (WU) down 9.5c. Paris MATIF eased slightly while Russian cash firmed to $231/t.  

The USDA surprised the market with a high US spring wheat yield of 51.7 bu/ac, near last year’s record, with North Dakota again hitting 59 bu/ac. Spring wheat production came in at 504 million bushels (Mbu) vs expectations of 475. Winter wheat production was trimmed 37Mbu due to lower harvested area, despite a solid 54.2 bu/ac yield. HRW at 431Mbu faces scepticism on its export projections.  

New crop US wheat carryout was cut slightly to 890Mbu, 5Mbu below trade expectations.  

Globally, changes were minor: Canada and Ukraine down 1Mt each, Russia up 0.5Mt, EU up 0.75Mt. Chinese wheat imports unchanged at 6Mt.  

There is ongoing concern around Russia: harvest delays, poor farmer selling, and a tight FOB market could support prices, but US futures remain cautious until clear demand surfaces.

Other grains and oilseeds

US Corn markets remain under pressure despite a relatively friendly USDA update.  

CU dropped 3.25c and CZ lost 4.25c. Old crop stocks were trimmed 25Mbu after a 100Mbu export increase and 75Mbu feed cut. New crop stocks were lowered 90Mbu to 1660Mbu, but the market remains bearish, anticipating a potential 185 bu/ac yield. Brazil’s 24/25 production was revised up 2Mt to 132Mt; Argentina unchanged at 50Mt.  

Chinese old crop imports were cut 2Mt to 5Mt.  

Despite modest reductions in US carryout, bearish sentiment dominates on expectations of strong yields and large South American supplies. Soybeans continued to slide: SQ lost 8.5c and SX fell 6.5c. Old crop carryout was flat as a 15Mbu export increase was offset by a residual cut. 

For new crop, exports were lowered 70Mbu while crush rose 50Mbu, leaving carryout at 310Mbu—above market expectations of 302. Yield held steady at 52.5 bu/ac. A slight production cut (5Mbu) was noted due to lower harvested area.  

Meal prices slipped ($1.10 down on SMQ) while oil gained. Increased crush raises questions about where the extra meal will go amid uncertain export and domestic demand. The trade is watching both weather and pending clarity on biofuel policy and tax credits.

Macro

The US continues to escalate tariff threats.  

Trump has proposed 30pc tariffs on EU goods, reduced from earlier threats of 50pc.  

Canada and Mexico face new tariffs of 35pc and 30pc, respectively, but most trade under USMCA will be exempt.  

Canadian energy will remain at a preferential 10pc rate. Trump also floated raising the blanket minimum tariff on all countries (e.g. New Zealand currently at 10pc) to 15–20pc. These trade tensions add further uncertainty to agricultural markets already coping with volatile supply and demand outlooks.

Australia