Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 14, 2022

Dow down another 3pc, oilseeds complex eased about 2pc. Grains moved each way, in fractions.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US0.25 cents per bushel to 1071c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 0.75c/bu to 1161.752.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 0.25c/bu to 1221.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €2.75/t to €394.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $0.75/t to $410.25/t;
  • Corn July contract down 4c/bu to 769.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract down 38c/bu to 1707.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$15.60/t at $1028.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €23.75/t to €760/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract untraded on Public Holiday previous settlement was A$460/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract untraded on Public Holiday previous settlement was $470/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.692.

International

Macros were more dominant than anything in the US again overnight. The Dow Jones Industrials Average was off 876 points with fears the Federal Reserve may get more aggressive with their rate hikes to combat the worse than expected inflation. The US annual inflation rate was 8.6pc, the biggest jump in prices faced by consumers since 1981.

In grains markets it feels like the calm before the storm. Wheat has been strangely quiet on the boards given we are on the doorstep of harvest and we are knee deep in war-led supply chain disruptions. The weather in the US has obviously been pretty horrific in Hard Red Spring wheat regions, crop ratings looking for 63pc good-to-excellent, but came in at 54pc. France looks like it is heading into summer proper with temperatures at 38°C across the grainbelt while Argentina is not getting the rain it needs. The market feels squeezy.

US crop conditions/progress reports were as follows:

Corn crop condition was rated 72pc good-to-excellent (g/e) vs. 73pc last week & 68pc last year

Soybean condition 70pc g/e vs. 62pc last year

Soybeans planted 88pc vs. 78pc last week, 93pc last year & 88pc average

Sorghum planted 66pc, vs. 56pc last week, 69pc last year & 71pc average

Sorghum crop condition was rated 47pc g/e vs. 74pc last year

Winter wheat harvested 10pc, vs. 4pc last year & 12pc average

Winter wheat condition 31pc g/e, vs. 30pc last week & 48pc last year

Spring wheat condition 54pc g/e, vs. 37pc last year

Barley condition 49pc g/e, vs. 46pc last week & 45pc last year.

Australia

Australian markets led into the long weekend sluggish, wheat values were relatively unchanged on old and new crop across the board. Offer side remained sticky and buyers were not budging

The June Grains Industry of WA (GIWA) report pegged WA’s winter-crop area at 8.963 million hectares, up 55,000ha, or 6 per cent from the 8.908Mha forecast in May. The report noted that this is an historically large crop, and has been planted on the back of high grain prices leading up to and during seeding. Recent rain arrived just in time for crops in the drier regions in the central and north of the state, and topping up moisture profiles in the southern regions. While estimated wheat area was down 60,000ha from May, canola is up 80,000ha to 1.83Mha. Good weed control, even crop establishment and timely post-emergent nitrogen applications, combined with a large area planted, have set up the state for another potentially big harvest.

A dry long weekend was welcome across the eastern states. WA and southern Vic received some showers but it was dry across most cropping country.

 

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