Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 14, 2024

Wheat eased

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down US3.25c/bu to 544.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 9.75c/bu to 587.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 8.5c/bu to 663.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €2/t to €194.75/t;
  • Corn May 2024 down 0.5c/bu to 441.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 0.75c/bu to 1196.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$2.70/t to $625/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €3.75/t to €440.25/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $317/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$1/t to $320/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$295/t;
  • AUD dollar up 16 points to US$0.6622.

International

FranceAgriMer has revised French 2023-24 soft wheat export forecast outside the EU down by 0.1Mt to 10.15Mt, citing reduced demand from China . It cut exports within the EU to 6.19Mt from 6.32Mt and revised upwards French soft wheat ending stocks by 0.23Mt to 3.74Mt. 

There are conflicting/unconfirmed reports that China has cancelled some French wheat purchases. 

The French Farm Ministry has pegged 2024-25 common wheat area at 4.5 million ha, down 5pc year on year and 5pc below the 5-year average, durum area is down 11pc yoy and 16pc below the 5-year average. Winter barley acreage is estimated at 1.3 million ha, down 4pc yoy but 3pc higher than 5-year average. Canola area seen at 1.4 million ha, up 1pc yoy and 17pc above average. 

According to a survey by commodity brokerage Allendale, US farmers plan to reduce corn plantings by 1.2pc this year, expand soybean plantings by 2.7pc and reduce wheat area by 3.9pc. 

The Russian Grain Union reports that, as at 10 March, cumulative 2023-24 (Jul/Jun) grains exports are at 47Mt, including wheat at 38.7Mt. Total export potential for the full year is estimated at 67Mt, including wheat at 55Mt. 

European Commission data for week ending 3 March shows cumulative all wheat exports at 21.6Mt (-4pc form previous year), imports at 8.2Mt (+8pc). Maize exports at 2.7Mt (+71pc), imports at 11.5Mt (-40pc). Barley exports at 5.6Mt (-14pc) and canola imports at 3.76Mt (-34pc). 

Thai importers have reportedly purchased 120kt of feed wheat from optional origins in two consignments of 60kt each, one at $244.80/t c&f liner out for shipment between June 20 and July 10, and the other at $242.80/t c&f liner out for shipment between July 11 and July 31. 

Australia

The eastern markets were all about canola yesterday, where track values firmed to $635/t, with delivered port values at $660-70/t. With most of the offshore move passed on, we hit some trigger levels for growers which saw good liquidity

The WA wheat market was unchanged yesterday, grower bids for APW1 are $360/t FIS Kwinana. Feed barley interest improved to push levels to $327/t FIS for Kwinana & Albany ports, while canola (CAN) values have continued to move higher to $680/t FIS for Kwinana & Albany, with Esperance trading within a $690-$700/t FIS range during the day. New season canola (CAN) flirted with $700/t FIS, and new season wheat remained around $355/t FIS in Kwinana.

ABS data shows we exported 928kt of barley in January, down 28pc from the record volume shipped in December, with China taking 724kt, Japan 91kt and Mexico 61kt.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will travel to Australia next week, his first visit since 2017, to meet with Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong. They will meet for the seventh Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue, which was postponed for several years. Senator Wong said in a statement yesterday said it’s Australia’s view that a stable bilateral relationship would enable both countries to pursue respective national interests, if they navigate differences wisely.

 

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