Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 15, 2022

Corn gained 2pc on Friday after USDA released supply and demand estimates. Other markets vacillated in fractions.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US3.75 cents per bushel to 822.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 0.5c/bu to 892.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 3c/bu to 932c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.50/t to €328.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract unchanged at $346/t;
  • Corn December contract up 14.5c/bu to 642.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 5.75c/bu to 1454.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$3.90/t to $863/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €3.75/t to €656.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$6/t to $410/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$14/t to $316/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.711.

International

Friday night’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates publication was pretty much in line with pre-report trade estimates.

Corn stocks shrink

USDA lowered the corn yield estimate by 1.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) to 175.4bu/ac. The trade estimate was 175.8bu/ac. USDA production forecast was 364.73 million tonnes (Mt) compared with 368.44Mt in July.

USDA revised downwards by 2Mt its forecast of EU corn exports, raised by 3Mt its forecast of EU corn imports and slashed its estimate of the EU corn crop 8Mt, to 60Mt (still 4.5Mt above European crop analyst Stratégie Grains). Ukraine corn production was revised up 5Mt and exports up 3.5Mt.

World 2022-23 corn ending stocks were revised downward to 306.7Mt from 312.9Mt, lower than the trade had anticipated. The revision reflected the combined EU and US reductions.

Bigger soybean yield surprises

Soybean yield and production increases in the USDA estimates were unexpected. Traders had expected a half-bushel fall in yield and a drop in production, USDA instead came out with an increase in both. Soybean yield was pegged at 51.9 bu/ac, production a record 4.531billion bushels, revised upward 26milbu since the July forecast.

Soybean changes globally, however,  were minor. China’s soybean crop was up by less than 1Mt, to 18.4Mt and its soybean imports were left unchanged at 98Mt, well above last year.

Wheat stock drops to 6-year low

With offsetting changes in world wheat production estimates, the USDA projection of world wheat ending stock fell from 267.5Mt to 267.3Mt, the lowest in six years.

Slightly higher US spring wheat yields offset lower US winter wheat production and yield. US total wheat production was forecast 48.52Mt

Russia’s wheat crop was pegged at a record 88Mt up 6.5Mt from July, but still under other estimates. Russia’s wheat exports were raised by 2Mt to 42Mt. Australia and China both had increases in their wheat crops by 3Mt to 33Mt and 138Mt respectively and the Canadian crop was raised by 1Mt to 35Mt. India’s wheat crop was down by 3Mt, and the EU crop by 2Mt to 132.1Mt.

Australia

Local markets stabilised towards the end of the week. Growers continued to sell current crop wheat into the market.

Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, GIWA, released its August crop report on Friday stating that well-timed rainfall has improved the outlook for grain production. The August forecast of WA 2022 wheat production is 10.3 million tonnes (Mt), compared with the July forecast of 10.15Mt (12.89Mt in 2021). Canola production August forecast is 3.16Mt, based on increase in area planted and higher yield, compared with July forecast 2.84 (3.13Mt in 2021) and barley 5.12Mt compared July 5.25Mt (6.37Mt in 2021).

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