ASX January wheat eased 2 percent yesterday. Offshore markets overnight were mixed. Most moved less than 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrials Average firmed.
- Chicago December 2024 up US4.5 cents per bushel to US556.25c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 1.25c/bu to 561.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 2.75c/bu to 608.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €3/t to €219.50/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 up 3.5c/bu to 400.75c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 up 6c/bu to 968.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$9.70/t to $578.30/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €4.25/t to €457/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$7/t to $323/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$2.80/t to $291.50/t;
- AUD dollar down 37 points to US$0.6597.
International
According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Ukraine’s 2024 corn production may fall to 20-21Mt from around 30Mt in 2023 if drought continues. Most of Ukraine experienced a heatwave in July, which could reduce the yield of late crops by around 30pc. Analysts and traders have predicted Ukraine’s corn crop at between 23-25Mt, while the USDA August number was only cut by 0.5Mt to 27.2Mt. The USDA’s FAS post in Kyiv puts the crop at 26.2Mt, 1Mt below the official number.
According to a joint statement from FranceAgriMer and French agricultural research institutes Arvarlis and Terres Inovia, French soft wheat quality is seen to be similar to last year, although protein content varies across regions. Test weight is very irregular due to varying sunshine and rain across the country, with eastern regions having low test weight while western weights are fair to good.
The Manitoba Crop Report for the week ending 12 August noted variable rainfall was received over the past week, with accumulated precipitation since 1 May exceeding the long-term average in most areas. 2024-25 winter wheat harvest was 17pc complete and barley 5pc. Harvest of early spring wheat and peas has also started but is less than 1pc complete.
StoneX Brazil revised 2024-25 wheat production up by 0.2Mt, to 8.4Mt (Conab 8.8Mt, 8.1Mt previous year), with exports up by 0.2Mt, to 1.8Mt (2.0Mt, 2.8Mt).
The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India pegged July palm oil imports at 1.1Mt, up 37pc from June, soyoil estimated at 392kt, up 42pc and sunflower oil at 367kt is up 22pc.
US CPI rose moderately in July, with the annual increase in inflation slowing to below 3pc for the first time since early 2021. Analysts now see a 55pc chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September.
Australia
New crop canola bids in the west were down A$12/t yesterday at $755/t following the offshore lead. Both nearby and new crop wheat values were a couple of bucks softer at $362/t and $372/t respectively and barley bids also eased. The east coast market saw similar moves with new crop canola bids down $15/t at $685/t, while new crop APW1 was relatively unchanged at $346/t. The ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ended the day down $7/t at $323/t.
We have seen some good rainfall totals across NNSW and SQld which places them in the box seat heading into spring, with massive yield potential. Pockets of southern NSW have also picked up some handy totals with more on the way in the next couple of days. More importantly SA and Vic are picking up some rain this morning with showers expected to continue throughout today and tomorrow.
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