Overview of futures markets:
Slight losses across the board for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT Wheat was down -2.75c to 449.5c,
- Kansas wheat down -1.5c to 465.25c,
- corn down -1.25c to 374.25c,
- soybeans down -9.25c to 1045c,
- Winnipeg canola down -3.699$C to 521.1$C,
- Matif canola down -0.5€ to 423.5€.
- The Dow Jones up 92.25 to 20504.41 ,
- Crude Oil up 0.090c to 53.02c,
- AUD up to 0.765c,
- CAD up to 1.307c, (AUDCAD 1.001)
- EUR down to 1.057c (AUDEUR 0.723).
Soybeans and canola
Soybeans lower with improving crop potential in South America, the complex was softer with declines in meal stagnant oil. With the speculative community long beans, today’s price action suggests some exiting of positions.
Canola could not break technical resistance which sparked some profit-taking, putting downward pressure on the market.
Corn lower in a quiet session, trading a 2.25c range. Market appeared to have a breather and reflect on the large open interest increase over the last 5 sessions. New fund money continues to flow into the commodity, defying what is viewed by many as bearish fundamentals. Us corn is still pricing export business, but carryouts are forecast to be large and South American competition is not far away. Speculation builds on future US exports to Mexico, Mexican parliament have introduced a policy to buy only South American corn on the back of rising political tensions with the US.
Wheat fell in line with other markets in a low volume session. This in spite of speculation that warm weather in the Southern US could spark a premature exit for wheat germination, opening it up to possible frost damage in the event of future frost events. Russian wheat prices continue to increase in value despite surplus stocks which will need to be cleared to enable new crop logistics, the farmer is holding steady over there is a strong ruble pressures domestic pricing.
The damage from WA’s rain events last week is still being assessed. There is talk of force majeure events in Albany and Kwinana, however the question is when these will be called on? The CBH network has very good port storage, so the impacts may be delayed for later vessels as port stocks are drawn down. The event will restrict new business however, which will remove some competition for east coast bulk sellers. QLD and NSW remain hot and dry with only coastal showers forecast in the near term. The sorghum crop continues to decline, with some calling the crop below 1Mt.
Source: Lachstock Consulting