Daily Market Wire 15 February 2023

Lachstock Consulting, February 15, 2023

Prices eased in fractions.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US4 cents per bushel to 796.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 5c/bu at 895.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract up 0.5c/bu to 923.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 contract up €0.25/t to €296.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at US$304/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 2.5c/bu to 679.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 6c/bu to 1530c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$3.10/t to $817.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €1.75/t to €553.50/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$0.50/t to $396.50/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$335/t;
  • AUD dollar gained one third per cent to US$0.697.


Russia said on Monday that it would be “inappropriate” to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative unless sanctions affecting Russia’s agricultural exports were lifted and other issues resolved. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said in a statement Russia’s position on the issue of a further continuation of the Black Sea Initiative remained the same. “Without tangible results on the implementation of the Russia-UN Memorandum, above all on the real removal of sanctions restrictions on Russian agricultural exports… the extension of the Ukrainian document is inappropriate,” he said. There is nothing new here and the expectation is that the deal will be extended but Russia will draw things out until the expiry date in March. 

SovEcon estimates Russia’s total February grain exports at 4.3Mt, (4.4Mt January 2023 and 2.8Mt February 2022. It included 3.7Mt wheat (3.8Mt January 2023 and 2.5Mt February 2022).

France’s farm ministry made a slight upward revision to its estimate of 2023-24 area sown to soft wheat, while making a sharper upward revision for rapeseed. The winter soft wheat area was now seen at 4.76Mha (4.75Mha in December). The new estimate was up 2pc compared with the area harvested in 2022 and slightly higher than the 5-year average. For 2023-24 winter rapeseed, area planted was increased to 1.34Mha (1.29Mha in December) and is now 9pc above last year’s level and nearly 11pc above the five-year average. Barley area was also revised up to 1.34Mha (1.30Mha in December) which is 3.7pc up from last year and 7pc above the five-year average. French wheat and barley crops were in very good shape ahead of winter. But crops are now facing a dry February, raising some market concerns ahead of the key spring growing season. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2Mt to 123Mt, citing safrinha corn planting delays and the possibility not all intended acres will be seeded. Dr Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 151Mt noting early yields in Mato Grosso are “good” and will likely compensate for any potential losses in southern Brazil. He cut Argentine soybean crop estimate by 2Mt, to 36Mt, and corn by 1Mt, to 43Mt. 

Mexico scrapped the January 2024 deadline to ban genetically modified corn for animal feed and industrial use amid trade tensions with the US but retained plans to prohibit use of the grain for human consumption as well as the herbicide glyphosate. 

China’s rural policy document has set a target to increase grain production by 50Mt, from the current level of more than 650Mt. It aims to increase soybean production in order to reduce reliance on imports, including via continued intercropping with maize and developing saline land. It plans to increase production of edible oils and to reduce the use of soymeal in feed rations. It seeks to improve maize yields, as well as support wheat farmers and stimulate production of rapeseed on fallow land during winter months. It aims to accelerate the pace of commercialisation of GM maize and soybeans. Among medium-term goals it seeks to develop indoor farms. 

In its regular tender Japan’s MAFF seeks 76,203t milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia. 


Wheat in eastern Australia firmed a couple of dollars. Track SA barley firmed to A$320/t. Canola found some more buying interest in Port Lincoln and Adelaide zones.


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