Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 15, 2024

All markets eased between approximately 2 percent and 1pc.  The Dow Jones Industrials Average recovered a third of its previous day loss. The US Dollar Index weakened a little and the Australian dollar gained half percent. The wheat settlements in the table below duplicate March and May today, in readiness to transition beyond the nearby month.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US12 c/bu to 585.5c/bu;
  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down 14c/bu to 583c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 6.75c/bu to 587.75c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 8.25c/bu to 584c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 9.25c/bu to 662.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 9c/bu to 663.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €1.50/t to €207.50/t;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €2.25/t to €202.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 6c/bu to 437.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 15.5c/bu to 1176.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$13.10/t to C$589.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €0.50/t to €424.50/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$8.50/t to $354.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$1.20/t to $359.30/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 37 points to US$0.6491

International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised upward its 2024-25 Russian wheat production by 1.4Mt to 93.6Mt (92.8Mt previous year), reflecting favourable conditions. The winter wheat crop is estimated at 67.7Mt, up from 63.8Mt in 2023, while the spring crop is forecast to be down 3.1Mt from the previous year at 25.9Mt. During the last month, minimum temperatures in all federal districts were 2-4 °C above normal. A significant snow cover of 15 cm and above has been maintained in the Central and Volga regions. Currently, the weather in the south is unusually warm, with temperatures 10-12 °C above normal. Such temperature fluctuations could threaten winter crops, but only in the case of a sudden cold snap. 

FranceAgriMer has revised 2023-24 soft wheat ending stocks to 3.50Mt from 3.44Mt forecast last month, which are now up 37pc year on year. Cuts to domestic use and exports within the EU, were partially offset by a 0.15Mt upward revision of exports outside the EU, now seen at 10.25Mt. 

Israel launched extensive airstrikes in Lebanon yesterday killing four people in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed an Israeli soldier. It is a significant escalation in cross-border tensions. 

Ukraine said it sank a large Russian landing ship off Crimea. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) announced that its special operations unit used floating drones to hit the Caesar Kunikov. Russian officials have not commented on the incident. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that as at 14 Feb, cumulative 2023-24 grain exports are estimated at 26.3Mt, compared to 29.7Mt in the previous year, including maize at 14.4Mt, wheat at 10.1Mt and barley at 1.5Mt. 

Egypt’s GASC reportedly purchased 120,000 tonnes of yellow maize from Ukraine, at US$220.25/t c&f, for Mar/Apr shipment. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 60kt of feed barley from optional origins yesterday at an estimated $219/t c&f for shipment in the first half of June. 

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) reportedly purchased 60,000 tonnes of feed wheat from optional origins, at $255/t c&f, plus an additional port unloading surcharge, quoted at $1.50/t, for June arrival.

Australia

Local canola values rallied yesterday to finish up A$7/t for the day at $620-625/t track. The delivered market was also strong with coastal city values at $650/t. Newcastle and Melbourne were trading at evens which has seen the north/south spread erode. GM still maintains a tight spread vs non-GM. Wheat markets were softer again with ASX May24 pulling back $1.20/t to finish at $359.30/t. 

Line ups data shows that February export volumes are building with 3.52Mt of total grain on the stem, including wheat at 2.42Mt, barley at 470kt, canola at 607kt and sorghum at 23kt. 

GIWA released its wrap up of the 2023-24 WA season, with final estimates coming in at 7.65Mt for wheat, 3.65Mt for barley and 2.51Mt for canola. For the coming season it noted that sub-soil moisture levels are very low in most regions, and there have been record maximum temperatures in January and the start of February. The next two and a half months will determine the change in canola area and from then on, the wheat/barley split. This will be largely dependent on the timing of the break to the season and how much autumn rain is received.

 

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