Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 January 2020

Guest Author, January 15, 2020

Wheat futures lifted, canola markets fell.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up 6.25 cents per bushel to 568.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 4.25 cents to 497c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 0.75c/bu to 556c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1.25 to €194.25/t;
  • Corn March contract down 0.5c to 389c;
  • Soybeans March contract unchanged at 942.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$1.40/t to $481.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €3/t to €417.50/t;
  • Brent crude February contract up $0.30c per barrel to $64.50 per barrel;
  • Dow Jones index up 32 points to 28939 points;
  • AUD weaker at $0.689;
  • CAD weaker at $1.306;
  • EUR weaker at $1.113.

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US markets picked up overnight amidst hopes of trade deal support, with Chicago wheat up 6 1/4¢ to 568.5¢, KC +4 1/4¢ to 497¢, Minny + 3/4¢ to 556¢, and Matif +1.25€ to 194.25€.  Corn dropped half a cent to 389¢ and beans were unchanged at 942.25¢ (Winnipeg canola -$1.4 to $481.5 and Matif -3€ to 417.5€).

Crude oil is mixed on small changes, with WTI off slightly to $58.1 and Brent up to $64.5, while the DOW picked up 32 points.

The AUD is trading around 68.9¢, the CAD $1.306, and the EUR $1.113.

Market wrap

The much-hyped and much-discussed US/China trade deal is due to be signed late tonight (Wednesday US time) – or at least phase 1 of it.

Details remain sparse, but markets are still cautiously optimistic.

Without any clear details it’s hard to assess what markets will “need” to see to support further optimism – Lachstock remains cautious about the potential for disappointment if firm figures are not shown.

Markets are still questioning how they “can” reach the discussed levels of imports.

Doing so is far from impossible, but will require some dramatic changes to current trade flows to realise.

There was a flash bean sale for two boats of new crop (20/21) beans today, but still no China business – and no guarantee that, if it happens, it will come directly after the deal is signed.

Wheat markets saw some excitement over talk of a potential export quota/restriction in Russia. But it was only a proposal and the levels discussed do not look set to be a factor at all this year.

GASC picked up four boats, three Russian, around $249-50/t cost and freight, inclusive of GASC costings which have remained nearly $10/t or so in the last few tenders.

Australia

Marge, Marge, the rains are here!  Showers fell in parts of western NSW overnight and forecasts remain solid across the state with 25-30+ mm across the majority of the cropping area, and southern Queensland.

Markets remain relatively quiet with some bids pulling back a bit on the forecast moisture.  Somewhat surprisingly, given the timing, we’re hearing more interest, than we’d expected, to put in sorghum further west on the Downs after this rain. We’ll see how that eventuates. A lot will depend on how much moisture ends up falling.

 

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