Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 15, 2024

Rapeseed and wheat futures on the MATIF exchange eased more than 1 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down 7.75c/bu to US596c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 0.75c/bu to 615.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 0.5c/bu to 699.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €2.25/t to €216/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 10.75c/bu to 459c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 12.25c/bu to 1235.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$4.70/t to C$634.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €6.75/t to €421.25/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$1.50/t to $370/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$314.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 1 points to US$0.6687.

International

Things have escalated in the Red Sea with a second round of strikes led by the US and UK against multiple sites controlled by the Houthi rebels in Yemen – it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houthi official Hussein al-Ezzi said “America and Britain will undoubtedly have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences of this blatant aggression.” 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that as at 10 Jan, 2023-24 maize planting was 85pc complete (83pc previous year), with conditions rated at 95pc fair/excellent (98pc previous week, 53pc previous year). Good soil moisture levels were noted in the centre region. Soybeans planting was 93pc complete (88pc previous year), with conditions rated at 98pc fair/excellent (98pc, 44pc). Recent rainfall and hail caused some crop damage and replanting is underway in affected areas. Barley harvest is 94pc complete, with the production outlook maintained at 5.0Mt. 2023-24 wheat harvest 94pc complete, with recent rainfall hampering progress, production revised up 0.1Mt to 15.1Mt. 

Friday’s USDA report had a few surprises with US corn yield and production revised up to record levels despite the difficult season and soybean production coming in higher than expected. US Winter wheat acres came in well below pre report expectations, down 6pc year on year at 34.4 million acres (35.8 expected). South American production numbers were also questioned with cuts to Brazil corn and soybean not as big as expected. China got a near 12Mt bump in corn production, now pegged at 289Mt, reflecting the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics. There were no real surprises in world wheat revisions, with upward revisions for Russia (+1Mt) and Ukraine (+0.9Mt) partially offset by a 0.41Mt cut to China. 

Ukraine reportedly exported 4.8Mt of ag products via the Black Sea corridor in December, surpassing the maximum monthly volume exported under the UN brokered grain deal – USDA bumped Ukraine wheat exports up by 1.5Mt to 14Mt in Friday’s WASDE. 

Chinese customs data shows December soybean imports were 9.8Mt, up 24pc from October. Total 2023 calendar year imports reached 99.4Mt, up 11pc YoY. Total grain imports reached 162Mt, up 12pc reflecting increased imports of wheat, corn and barley.

Australia

Local cereal markets were mostly flat to close out the week giving up a total of A$5/t over the course of the week. Canola values were a touch stronger again at the end of last week as the grower was still reluctant to sell.

ABS data shows November wheat exports at 1.17Mt of wheat, down 17pc from October and the lowest monthly volume since November 2020. Indonesia was the biggest market taking 217kt followed by China (185kt) and Vietnam (124kt). Australia exported 908kt of barley, down 2pc from October. China was by far the biggest buyer taking 722kt, followed by Japan (77kt) and South Africa (32kt). Australia exported 544kt of canola, up 43pc from October with the EU taking 248kt, the UAE 120kt and Japan 64kt. 

USDA left 2023-24 Australian production estimates unchanged in Friday’s WASDE, with wheat at 25.5Mt, barley at 10Mt, canola at 5.5Mt, and sorghum at 1.8Mt.

 

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