Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 15, 2021
Most futures gained about 2pc, though European rapeseed dipped.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US9.5 cents per bushel to 670c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 10.75c/bu to 636.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 11.75c/bu to 640.5c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €3/t to €229.75;
  • Corn March contract up 9.75c/bu to 534.25c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 24.25c/bu to 1430.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$3/t to $687.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €2.75/t to €439.50;
  • Brent crude March up US$0.36 per barrel to $56.42;
  • Dow Jones index down 69 points to  30,991 points;
  • AUD firmer at $0.779;
  • CAD firmer at $1.264;
  • EUR firmer at $1.216

International

Ags firmed up across the boards with more early buying interest seeing support mid session from better export sales figures and ongoing rumours about Chinese demand hitting in larger style as new crop tariff rate quotas (TRQs) are issued.

The dollar has gradually eased off recent highs to hit 90.2 on the index after the US Fed suggested that rate rises would be “no time soon”.

Monday will be a holiday in the US, and CBOT/Minny will be closed from Friday’s regular session close until Monday’s night session open.

President Trump was impeached for the second time early yesterday morning and markets are slightly worried that a drawn-out impeachment trial could delay stimulus measures being proposed

Large US export sales, for this time of year, had corn at 1.4 million tonnes (Mt), beans at 0.9Mt, and wheat at 0.222Mt.  the wheat result was slightly disappointing but was overshadowed by row crops.  Bean sales were particularly notable as they included nearly 500,000t of new Chinese sales, not switched from unknown, at a point when Brazilian harvest is already starting to get underway.  There were also 190,000t of new milo/sorghum sales, confirming some expectations from earlier this week when strong rallies in basis were noted across the southern Plains.

Plenty of rumours going around about more Chinese buying interest, beyond the weekly export sales reports which are a week lagged. The TRQ issuance happening there is being thrown around as a justification for heavier front-end interest on corn.   Ukrainian corn market also reporting more aggressive origination interest for probable Chinese sales

South American weather maps are looking a little better for parts of Argentina with a slightly wetter bias in some runs. Moisture is still on a knife edge though as crops hit peak growing season

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange cut its corn crop estimate by 2Mt on the recent weather stress.  It pegged wheat at 17Mt, up half a million from prior.

Brazilian truckers have begun talking about a strike to come in Feb as bean logistics pick up pace leading to peak truck demand. Complaints about pay are commonplace. Truckers are also hurt by diesel costs which have been particularly high on account of the weaker Brazilian Real currency this season.

Australia

More Australian origination strength emerged yesterday, with ongoing coverage a priority as stems tick forward

We’re still looking at some rains in CQ into the weekend, but the extended outlook storm event has been basically wiped off the maps in the latest model runs. Let’s see how that evolves in the next couple of days.

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