Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 July 2019

Lachstock Consulting, July 15, 2019

Friday’s futures moves were firmer across grains and oilseeds.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up 1.5 cents per bushel to 523c
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 5.75c to 467.25c,
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 1.5c to 542.75c,
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1.50 per tonne to €178.25;
  • Corn September contract up 10c to 454.25c;
  • Soybeans August contract up 14.25c to 913.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$3.50/t to $450.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €0.50 to €370.25;
  • Brent crude September contract up $0.20 per barrel to $66.72;
  • Dow Jones up 243.93 points to 27,332.03;
  • AUD  US$0.7020c;
  • CAD $1.303;
  • EUR $1.127;

Market summary

Quiet moves finished out the week in the US on Friday, with Chicago wheat closing up 1.5¢ to 523¢, KC +5 ¾¢ to 467 ¼¢, Minny +1.5¢ to 542 ¾¢.  Corn picked up 10¢ to 454 ¼¢, while beans were up 14 ¼¢ to 913 ¼¢ (Matif rapeseed up half a euro to 370 ¼€ and Winnipeg canola up $3.5 to $450.7).  The open on the overnight today has seen much of the same, with a few cents up on wheat and corn up 4 1/4¢.  Crude oil closed unchanged at $60.2 WTI/up 20¢ to $66.7 Brent and the DOW jumped another 244 points to further new highs.  The AUD is trading at 70.2€, the CAD at $1.303, and the EUR at $1.127.  Once again the macro market is back into political limbo, with a “quiet period” in the US/China trade talks … which are reportedly going to resume again with US officials traveling to China, but no firm information.

US weather extremes

The storm system hitting the US Gulf coast over the weekend has been downgraded (no longer a category), but heavy rains and flood risks remain – river levels should crest again on Monday there and will likely take a few more days before they are back to normal on barge activity.  Crop impacts are still to be determined, but with much of the southern Mississippi River area seeing 3-4”+ of rain, flood looses are to be expected across the bottomlands.  Meanwhile, a heatwave into later this week is still on the forecasts for much of the central corn belt and raising concerns about crop conditions (particularly with the delayed bean maturity).

Otherwise, the global situation remains largely unchanged. Black Sea wheat harvest continues to pick up (with reported Russian yield still falling off (and below last year in some places), and EU harvest is picking up pace.  Updated CFTC figures were also out on Friday (though noting that as always these are several days delayed – and miss the post report moves), showing managed money slightly longer corn (~187k aggregate) and slightly shorter beans (-42k aggregate) but with no real surprises to be seen.

Australia

Weather models back locally continue to look disappointing – we’ve lost the improved chances of rain on the two week models for the east coast, and only looking for a few scattered showers in southern NSW into this week (to say nothing of northern NSW).

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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