Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 15, 2021

US wheat, corn and beans lifted more than 2 per cent overnight. Canola fell.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US20.5c/bu to 654.25c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 16c/bu to 627.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 11c/bu to 872.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €5.75/t to €208.25/t;
  • Corn September contract was up 17c/bu to 568.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 34.25c/bu to 1394.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$23.30/t to $893.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €8.75/t to €538.75/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.4 to 92.4;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.748;
  • CAD unchanged at $1.251;
  • EUR firmer at $1.184;
  • ASX wheat July contract down $10/t to $300/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 unchanged at $300/t.

International

Grains kicked sharply higher overnight with Chicago wheat up 20.5¢, KC +16¢, Minny +11¢, and Matif +5.75€ on the earlier close.  Corn was up 17¢ and beans +34.25¢ (though canola finally took a breather, down $23.3 Winnipeg/ -8.75€ Matif).  Crude oil has dropped some two bucks to $73.1 WTI / $74.8 Brent after Saudi Arabia and the UAE came to an agreement that will see higher OPEC crude production, and the DOW was up 44 points.  The AUD has picked up to 74.8¢, the CAD $1.251, and the EUR $1.184 as the USD index hits 92.4.

The ongoing debate on macro markets about inflation and interest rates has seen yet another set of headlines emerge. The US Fed chair suggested they would step in rapidly if inflation spiked, while still attempting to downplay any immediate concerns.  This comes even as more price data confirms rapid rises in many consumer prices there, rises which are well above expectations.

Egypt’s GASC tender saw three boats of Romanian wheat booked at a ~US$262-267/t candf. The first boat was some $5/t cheaper on lighter freight.  There were plenty more cheap Romanian offers right above this level, along with a chunk of Ukrainian grain. Russian offers were several bucks higher.

Weekly US ethanol production dropped to 1.041 bpd, with stocks nominally lower to 21.1 million.

Following the other week’s restrictions on E15 sales in the US (blend wall joys) – there’s new legislation proposed there to open the E15 sales back up.  No indications yet as to whether it will be passed.

Weather maps continue to bring nice rains to end the week for the central/eastern Corn Belt – a solid 1-2″ for most.  Extended maps have continued to slide drier though, raising a few concerns. Mild temperatures are forecast for most.

Spring wheat weather remains disastrous. There’s no relief in either moisture or temperature across nearly the entire northern Plains  / Canadian Prairies and crops continue to bake.

The EU’s going to be targeting further increases in renewable energy in the coming decades, as per plans announced by the European Commission, but few concrete changes to actions in their proposals.

Black Sea weather maps remain great for harvest there – warm and dry through the end of the month..

Australia

Old crop Australian yesterday was subdued, though new crop liquidity was up slightly.  Canola continued to track the global boards.

WA weather maps are shifting sharply wetter again into next week, with the latest storm system now forecast to bring another inch across almost all the wheat belt there.

 

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