International

Here is our WASDE July report summary from Friday night.

The surprise was US corn with a cut in ending stocks when the market expected significant increases, neutral for beans, and considered bearish in wheat with a trade miss on US spring wheat production. 

• US corn 2024/25 ending stocks decreased by 5bbu to 2.097bbu (2.289bbu trade estimate). 
• US soybeans 24-25 ending stocks trimmed by 20mbu to 435mbu (447mbu trade estimate).  
• US wheat 24-25 ending stocks increased by 98mbu to 856mbu (785mbu trade estimate). 
• Global corn 24-25 ending stocks increased by 0.87Mt to 311.64Mt (311.5Mt trade estimate). 
• Global soybeans 24-25 ending stocks decreased by 0.14Mt to 127.76Mt (126.8Mt trade estimate). 
• Global wheat 24-25 ending stocks raised by 4.97Mt to 257.24Mt (252.1Mt trade estimate), due to increases in production for US (+3.64Mt), Canada (+1Mt) & Argentina (+0.5Mt). 

USDA raised substantially its 2024/25 wheat production estimate by 133mbu for 2024/25 to 2.008bbu (1.884bbu expected). The market anticipated a higher Hard Red Winter crop and it came in at 763 (743 expected) and compared to 726 in June. Soft Red Winter was as expected at 344 but it was the first survey-based US Spring wheat production number that caught the market by surprise, total Spring (incl. durum) came in about 12pc higher than expected at 667mbu. 

The other big surprise was corn; USDA raised old crop exports and domestic feed use by 75mbu each and raised new crop feed demand by another 75mbu. The net result was new crop corn stocks about 2.1bbu, about 200bbu below trade expectations. 

Russian wheat values continue to hover around US$220/t FOB, with winter crop harvest reports placing winter wheat harvest greater than 20pc complete. While we are on Russia, the USDA held Russian all wheat production at 83Mt and exports at 48Mt (compared to previous year numbers of 91.5Mt and 55.50 respectively). 

French wheat ratings fell another 1pc to 57pc g/e, which remains the lowest ratings since 2020 and compares to 80pc at the same time last year. French harvest has not broken into full stride yet and remain significantly behind normal. It is reported 4pc complete vs 1pc last week and 26pc at the same time last year. 

The Australian dollar is holding around 0.6775 and the odds continue to firm for a US interest rate cut in September. The A$ has now risen from a low this year of 64cents in mid-April. 

Lots of statistics are to be released today in Beijing, including monthly house price, industrial production, urban investment, retail sales, and unemployment, along with Q2 GDP.  Analysts and traders have set their expectations low. 

China imported 48.48Mt of soybeans Jan-Jun 2024, down 2.2pc year-on-year per the China customs data. The June import figure was 11.11Mt.

Australia

Prices of wheat and barley in the west closed down on Friday, although canola was largely unchanged at A$790/t FIS for new crop. 

The canola fall in the east seems to have slowed and prices stabilised in the back end of the week. 

Patchy rain fell in cropping areas over the past week with falls ranging from 5-50mm. Most received 15-25mm. 

A dry week ahead is forecast for Qld and NNSW. Parts of SNSW that missed out last week are forecast to fill in some gaps. Variable falls are on the cards for SA, Vic and WA with most set to receive 5-15mm, and 25-50mm is on the cards for the Western Districts and western parts of WA.