Markets

Daily market wire 15 March 2018

Lachstock Consulting, March 15, 2018

Overnight futures markets

Mixed for grains, lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat up 2.25c to 488.75c,
  • Kansas wheat up 4.5c to 524.75c,
  • Corn down -3c to 388.75c,
  • Soybean down -16.5c to 1032.25c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -2.5$C to 518.4$C,
  • Matif canola unchanged at 346.75€.
  • The Dow Jones down -248.91 to 24758.12,
  • Crude Oil up 0.21c to $US60.92 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.788c,
  • CAD down to 1.294c, (AUDCAD 1.020)
  • EUR down to 1.237c (AUDEUR 0.636).

Wheat

Wheat defied weakness in corn and oilseeds, with ongoing dryness preventing aggressive selling.

The showers forecast in the US would miss most of the Southern Plains and HRW areas.

Conditions in those areas continued to deteriorate, to the point where the governor of Kansas declared drought emergency in 28 counties, and issued drought warnings for the rest of the state.

Implied volatility in May SRW went out at 24.25 per cent.

There is a lot of demand around at present with Ethiopia, Iraq and Egypt’s GASC all on the hunt for nearby wheat.

Export sales are expected at 375,000t, in tomorrow’s weekly export sales report.

Corn

Corn was lower, suffering pressure from soybean weakness.

With the market structure this long, the potential for higher corn acres and time before the balance sheet tightens further, it was hard to see corn catching a bid.

Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected at 1.5Mt.

Canola

Canola was affected by the weakness in the oilseed complex, but held up reasonably well, given its insulations against a US China trade stoush.

Any trade restrictions on US beans could be supportive of Canadian canola.

Soybeans

Beans sold off heavily today, with weather and politics contributing to futures prices reaching a new 30-day low.

The South American weather forecast introduced tropical storms that would bring between 25-60mm across most production regions this weekend.

This is likely too late to mark a significant turnaround in yield, but could prevent further yield loss.

The main driver for beans’ price decline today was political.

The Trump government is reportedly planning to introduce US$60 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese imported goods and the market expects China to retaliate by preventing US bean imports.

The weekly export sales report tomorrow is expected at 1Mt. Soymeal was down $4.60 per tonne, while soy oil was down 51 points.

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