Wheat prices gained, canola rapeseed eased. Crude oil plumbed 2023 lows.
- Chicago wheat May 2023 contract up US11.75 cents per bushel to 696.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May 2023 contract up 17.25c/bu at 817.75c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May 2023 up 17.5c/bu to 850c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May 2023 up €2.25/t to €269.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat May 2023 up US$0.50/t to $290.25/t;
- Corn May 2023 contract up 7.25c/bu to 620.75c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2023 contract up 2.5c/bu to 1493.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$10.20/t to $757.60/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €2.50/t to €482.75/t;
- ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$4/t to $401.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$8/t to $408/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract down A$3.70/t to 326.50/t;
- AUD dollar gained 14 points to US$0.6682
The official statement from the UN released yesterday states “Within the context of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agreement foresees a renewal of 120 days but, in the present circumstances, the Secretary-General and his team are focused, in close contact with all the parties, on doing everything possible to ensure continuity of the Initiative. Regarding the parallel Memorandum of Understanding focused on the export of Russian food and fertiliser, Rebeca Grynspan, the head of UNCTAD, and her team, as well as the Secretary-General himself have spared no efforts to facilitate that trade. Meaningful progress has been made but it is true that some obstacles remain, notably with regard to payment systems. Our efforts to overcome those obstacles will continue unabated”
Oil prices closed down over USD$3/bbl as concerns mount of weakening economic activity due to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, despite reassurances from Biden that the US banking system is “safe”
According to SovEcon, Russia is expected to export 4.2mmt of wheat in March, This figure is double last year’s exports for the same month. Russia is increasing its exports, which dropped in February due to bad weather
Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 11 Mar, 2022-23 first (full-season) maize harvest is 26% complete (23% previous week, 34% previous year). Second (safrinha) maize crop plantings at 73% complete (64%, 87%). Fieldwork is nearing completion in Mato Grosso, with crops in generally good condition, while heavy rainfall limited sowings progress in Parana. In Mato Grosso do Sul, high soil moisture following earlier precipitation hampered fieldwork in places, with reported instances of pest infestation. Soybean harvest at 53% complete (44%, 63%), with most progress noted in Mato Grosso. Despite recent rainfall, crop losses were reported in Rio Grande do Sul due to prolonged drought. While precipitation delayed fieldwork in Parana, favourable conditions aided progress in Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut another 3mmt each from his Argentine soybean and corn crop estimates. He now forecasts the soybean crop at 28mmt and the corn crop at 37mmt. His minimum forecasts were lowered to 25mmt for soybeans and 22mmt for corn. Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop estimates at 151mmt for soybeans and 121mmt for corn
Rosstat reports that Russia’s 2022-23 grain production is estimated at 157.7mmt (+30% on previous year), including wheat at 104.2mmt (+37%), barley at 23.4mmt (+30%), maize at 15.9mmt (+5%). Oilseed production at 29.1mmt (+17%), including sunflowerseed at 16.4mmt(+5%), soybeans at 6.0mmt (+26%) and rapeseed at 4.5mmt (+62%)
US private exporters reported sales of 612,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year
Algeria’s OAIC (state grains agency) reportedly purchased around 540,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $308.00-$312.00 c&f, for Arp/May shipment.
Local markets remained largely unchanged along the east coast through wheat and barley. Western Australian values were a touch softer while canola was off yesterday across the boards.
The Bureau of Meteorology has announced that the 2022-23 La Niña has ended and declared that Australia is on El Niño watch. The tropical Pacific Ocean is now in a neutral phase, but there are signs of an El Niño forming later in the year. An El Niño watch means there is a 50 percent chance of an El Niño forming in 2023.
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