Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 November 2018

Lachstock Consulting, November 15, 2018

Mixed for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down 3c to 504.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down 3.5c to 483c,
  • Spring wheat up 0.25c to 578.5c.
  • CBOT corn up 0.25c to 366.75c,
  • Matif corn up €0.75 to €174.75,
  • Soybeans up 4.25c to 882.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola down C$2.50 to $478.30,
  • Matif canola was down €1.75 to €376,
  • Dow Jones down -277.72 to 25008.77,
  • Crude oil up 1.5pc to $56.53
  • AUD up 0.04pc to $0.721,
  • CAD unchanged at  $0.755,
  • EUR up 0.19pc to 1.1309.

Wheat

Wheat markets suffered selling pressure across the board with traded volumes lower. Implied volatility in March SRW finished at 20.8%, Matif Wheat was down -0.75€ to 201€, Black Sea Wheat was down -1.25$ to 235.75$ and the Ruble was up 1.31% to 0.0148. A cold temperature forecast for Russia could slow down the export task with heavy snowfall likely to affect the logistics task as well as winter plantings. European traded volumes were lower due to an industry conference in Geneva. There is nothing new for the wheat market, we need to see a slowdown in Russian exports to find US exports, until then its hard to justify a bid.

Corn

Corn traded a 2.25 cent range to finish fractions higher. It was a lacklustre session with no fresh fundamental drivers. A private sale of 212kmt was announced to Mexico, but that wasn’t unexpected.

Soybeans

Beans traded a meagre 8 cent range, finishing with mild gains as political uncertainty continues to discourage market participation. For optimists, the fact that the USDA has recorded two consecutive daily sales to “unknown” suggest that the US could be close to a demand spike from China. But that’s only speculation for now and plenty of people have been burnt trying to pick a resolution. Soybean Meal was up US$1.7 per tonne and Soy oil was down -0.02 points.

Australia

Aussie cash markets have stabilised in the West Coast with offers hard to find, while the East Coast and SA continue to decline. This seems unsustainable if you take a 3-4month view as the balance sheet suggests that East Coast supplies will tighten to a point that commands great WA imports. Weather wise we are looking at scattered showers of 10-15 mm across Eastern Vic, NSW and SQLD. This will do something for the sorghum crop, but just create harvest delays elsewhere

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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