Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 November 2021

Lachstock Consulting, November 15, 2021

Wheat the market driver  ended mostly firmer, but moves were less than 1pc. Five per cent firmer soybean meal led a rally in oilseeds markets of between 1pc and 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US4.5c/bu to 817c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 5c/bu to 833c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 3.25c/bu to 1050c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.25/t to €297.25/t;
  • Corn December contract up 7.75c/bu to 577.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract up 22.75c/bu to 1244.25c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$20.90/t to $1025.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €7/t to €710.25/t;
  • US dollar index was down 0.1 to 95.1;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.733;
  • CAD firmer at $1.255;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.144;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 unchanged at $374/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $/t to $380/t.

 

International

The week ended somewhat volatile. Chicago wheat toughed out a 4.5usc/bu firmer close after being down 7usc/bu at one point. Kansas held onto a 5usc/bu gain while Minni sank into a 3.5usc/bu down day to end the week. Black Sea wheat was unchanged at US$331.75/t fob while Matif wheat closed €0.25/t higher. Chicago corn firmed 7.75usc/bu which put it up 26usc/bu on the week while China corn had an unchanged session. However, it was the bean pits that threw up the big numbers. Soybean meal led the charge. Dec-21 meal rallied just under 5pc to close at $362/st, up $17.6/st. Beans were 22.75usc/bu higher while oil finished 0.17usc/lb in the red. Jan-22 Winnipeg canola firmed C$21.30/t while Matif canola put on €6/t. The Dow Jones rallied 179 points, crude was 80usc/bbl lower and the Aussie finished the week at 0.7332

Wheat is driving the agricultural futures markets, fundamentals supporting the buying and, every day it seems, another global end user sniffing around for tonnage. But as soybean meal showed on Friday night, demand is strong in other commodities as well. Amid increased chatter about the tightness of Argentine meal, US soybean meal export sales were particularly strong. This fuelled Friday’s sharply higher US meal basis. Price rises were compounded by harvest delays caused by rain and snow in the US.

Corn is, for a change, the forgotten child. However, with some spill over support from meal and some technical buying, corn managed to rally over 20usc/bu for the week. The tail of the US corn and bean harvest has been plagued by delays which have helped keep domestic basis big, mainly from the ethanol producer, despite a lacklustre export program.

Market news in wheat is more of the same. Demand seems agnostic to price and big parcels are hard to find. Russian export tax increases have spooked the sellers, so the global consumer is searching for depth. For some time, the market has accepted that Argentina and Australia have to do the heavy lifting, though, while tonnage prospects have pencilled in there is still a big question mark over quality.

Australia

Local markets continued to shine again as the week closed out. Wheat was firmer across the board by $5-6/t which saw Port Adelaide bid $400/t to the grower for APW1 while NSW Port Kembla port zone was bid $365/t level. ASX Jan eastern wheat contract settled at $374/t to finish the week up $17/t reaching a high of $385/t.

Barley gained a bid also and finished the week out stronger. Delivered trade markets were up 5 bucks across the board on Friday and we continue to see prompt demand as the stop-start harvest continues.

In LSC latest lineups report approximately 800,000mt of barley is due to be loaded and shipped in November across WA, SA and Victoria with large portion of those shipments destined for Saudi Arabia.

Canola markets had an up-and-down week. Friday saw moderate gains on the grower boards to be bid up $5/t. We have seen a little more volatility as we work our way through harvest and the global trade in canola continues to run at a rate of knots. We are setting records in shipping pace and farmer selling across the globe, but for how long?

Another week ahead of watching weather maps and radar images, as growers across the east coast and in SA get back on the paddocks and what looks set to be another stop-start week. Current weather forecast models are predicting more rain across the country this week.

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