Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 October 2020

Lachstock Consulting, October 15, 2020

Most markets firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US2.75 cents per bushel to 596.75c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 4c/bu to 535.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 1.75c/bu to 546c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.75 per tonne to €203.50;
  • Corn December contract up 5.25c/bu to 396.5c;
  • Soybeans November contract up 12.25c/bu to 1056.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November up C$0.90/t to $526.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €0.75/t to €390.25;
  • Brent crude November contract up US$0.87 per barrel to $43.32;
  • Dow Jones index down 166 points to 28,514;
  • AUD weaker at $0.714;
  • CAD weaker at $1.315;
  • EUR weaker at $1.174.

International

  • Firming continued across the board with all eyes on weather maps.  Row crops also continued to see gains
  • Politics remains something of a wildcard in the global macro markets. The upcoming election mixed in with ongoing stimulus arguments, with little indication that an agreement will be reached soon, is leaving uncertainty across the boards.
  • Rain in Brazil’s soybean areas overnight disappointed. It covered about 50pc of the area and measured 5mm to 10mm.  Nothing to be seen into Argentina either.  Next week’s maps continue to call for more moisture across both countries though…and some recent runs have trended wetter
  • Black Sea weather maps also remain positive into the two-week forecasts, though markets are still waiting to see that hold on into the more accurate short term models.
  • Forecasts are also calling for more moisture in the southern US plains (HRW country), though most of it looks set to hit southern Oklahoma and Texas, missing Kansas wheat areas.
  • USDA export sales flashes to China were back in style again overnight, with 420,000t corn and 264,000t beans sales reported.
  • News reporters have jumped onto comments by the USDA the other week about potential for an additional 20 million tonnes corn tariff rate quota (TRQ) into China – this was discussed around the market earlier in the week but getting more discussion again after hitting the news.  For months now we’ve seen corn sales go well above available TRQs (both US and global), but the question remains just how much will be allowed in.
  • Another strike is on the go in Argentina, delaying port loading there – ports have been intermittently shutting down for months now with ongoing failures to reach a lasting agreement.

Australia

  • Early harvested barley continues to deliver better than expected results on yield & quality
  • Weather system to cross SE Australia later this week has the potential to deliver finishing rains for the SE cropping belt of NSW. This soft finish will allow for good oil deposition in maturing canola seeds.

 

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