US wheat eased more than 2 percent. Brent crude eased 2pc. Canada had a holiday.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US13.75c/bu to 585.25c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 14.5c/bu to 590c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 17.25c/bu to 626.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €0.25/t to €228.75/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 7.5c/bu to 408.25c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 down 9.5c/bu to 996c/bu;
- Winnipeg was closed for a holiday on Monday, the canola Nov 2024 previously closed at C$614.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €4/t to €495.25/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$1/t to $336/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$1/t to $285/t;
- AUD dollar down 25 points to US$0.6726.
International
Russia’s Ag Ministry has requested that exporters do not sell wheat below a floor price of US$250/t fob and has instructed suppliers to conduct direct deals without the involvement of third parties.
The Alberta Crop Report notes that for the week ending 8 Oct, light rainfall was recorded in the North West and Peace regions which had a limited impact on fieldwork. 2024-25 harvest was 92pc complete (94pc previous year), including spring wheat at 96pc (98pc year ago), barley at 96pc (99pc) and canola at 83pc (87pc). Dryland yields for spring wheat are estimated at 3.1t/ha, barley at 3.1t/ha and canola at 1.8t/ha.
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised 2024-25 grains and legumes production down by 1.5Mt, to 122.9Mt (142.6Mt previous year), largely reflecting a 1.4Mt cut to wheat which is now seen at 81.5Mt. The cut reflects a marked decline in yields toward the end of harvest in several Siberian regions. Barley production was cut by 0.7Mt to 16.5Mt. Corn production was revised up 0.5Mt to 12.2Mt, reflecting relatively good yields in the Central and Volga regions.
Ukraine-based agribusiness consultancy APK-Inform revised their Ukraine 2024-25 export forecast down by 1.9Mt, to 37.2Mt, with maize exports cut by 2.5Mt, to 20Mt (29.4Mt), wheat was revised up 0.6Mt to 14.4Mt (18.4Mt). 2024-25 maize production revised down 2.6Mt to 24Mt (28.9Mt), wheat bumped slightly higher to 21.5Mt (22.8Mt).
Ukraine Ag Ministry data shows cumulative 2024-25 wheat exports for the week ending 11 Oct at 6.8Mt (+81pc), maize at 3.1Mt (+8pc) and barley at 1.6Mt (+142pc).
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange notes that for the week ending 9 Oct, 2024-25 maize plantings were 19pc complete (19pc previous year), with progress slowed due to dry conditions. Recent rains across the centre-north of Cordoba and Santa Fe were beneficial and improved soil moisture levels. Fieldwork in Buenos Aires province made mixed progress, with most advances seen in western regions. Farmers in Entre Rios completed sowing, but with area not sown to maize to be switched to soybeans. Sunflowerseed sowings was 13pc done (19pc), the slowest weekly progress on record due to dry conditions.
Australia
Monday’s WA canola bids were another $5/t firmer than Friday, to around $805/t and $740/t GM. Wheat values gained around $3/t to $370/t while barley lost a couple of bucks to around $314/t.
In eastern Australia canola track bids firmed again following the offshore move but the market is still starved of liquidity. Growers are wary of production risk and yield variability. Port Kembla track traded at around $760/t with local site premiums.
Qld & NNSW harvest continues in and around rain events, with quality and yields to date pleasing. Darling Downs wheat markets remain resilient having traded sideways for the past 2-3 weeks but liquidity remains poor. Rain forecast to arrive at the end of this week will be watched closely. It may be too late for some crops in the southern port zones but a reprieve will be welcome.
Grain handlers at GrainCorp sites across New South Wales will vote on whether to take industrial action after an application was made to the Fair Work Commission to hold a protected action ballot on Tuesday. The industrial action could impact every GrainCorp site in NSW, with workers at each site having the option to decide on the type and timing of action, and whether bans should include specific action such as unloading trucks and loading trains.
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