Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 15, 2022

Wheat futures gained. Corn and the oilseeds eased; rapeseed 2pc. Macros settled largely unchanged.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US11.75 cents per bushel to 872.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 13.25c/bu to 947c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 6.75c/bu to 938c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1/t to €337.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.25/t to $323.25/t;
  • Corn December contract down 10.5c/bu to 682.25/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 23.75c/bu to 1455c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$3.70/t to $797.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down  €14.50/t to €592/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$2/t to $419/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$1/t to $309/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.675.

International

Ukraine winter wheat area is expected to reach 4Mha, 15pc below last year’s area according to an agriculture ministry statement. Ukraine had planted 841 000ha of canola as of 12 September, 87pc of the Ministry forecast of around 1Mha, slightly below progress at the same time last year. Barley area is expected to fall 33pc to 645,000ha.

Ukraine exported 1.5Mt of grain in the first 13 days of this month, according to the agriculture ministry, 34pc less than the same period last year.

France’s Ag Ministry lowered its forecast for 2022-23 French wheat exports outside the EU by 300,000t to 10.0Mt, still up 13.8pc from 2021-22. The export forecast within the EU was increased by 110,000t to 7.13Mt

Argentine soybean farmers have sold around 57pc of the 2021/22 crop, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday citing data from last week, reflecting the boost from the preferential foreign exchange rate. China has reportedly bought around 30 cargoes from Argentina when it would normally be buying from the US.

Refinitiv Commodities Research reports that persistently warm, dry weather expected to prevail over the next 10 days in Argentina, with warmer than normal temperatures expected to spread from the Pampas to northern regions. Drought remains a major concern for 2022/23 wheat crops across the forecast period.

Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development reports that winter wheat harvest is 100pc completed (98pc last week, 100pc year ago), spring wheat 57pc (31pc, 90pc), barley 64pc (24pc, 96pc) and canola 11pc (1pc, 63pc). It said many farmers were pleasantly surprised by slightly higher than expected spring wheat yields to date. Canadian Western Red Spring wheat is mostly grading #1, with protein ranging between 13.5pc-14.8pc. Canola has suffered flea beetle damage and early planting stress on the earliest sown crops reducing yields compared to late sown.

Potential US rail strike stoppages will impact North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska from where grain would be hauled via rail to PNW ports for export and industry sources say it is already happening.  The National Grain and Feed Association has rail customers reporting at least one railway would start halting grain shipments on Thursday morning, a day ahead of the potential work stoppage. The Fertiliser Institute says hazardous material delivery to railheads has already been halted citing, for example, ammonia fertiliser.

Australia

Local markets found some strength yesterday with a softer Aussie dollar assisting things. New crop wheat bids were up $4-5/t, barley a touch stronger on the bid side and canola grower bids also were up $5-10/t.  Wheat basis continues to weaken and new crop liquidity remains thin. Eastern Australian current crop protein wheat remains well bid.

The past 7 days have been wet in southern Qld, NSW, Vic and SA with a widespread 15-50mm falling over the week and there is more rain on the way for NSW, Vic and southern SA. WA has been relatively dry with less than 10mm being received by most except the southern coastal region.

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