Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 April 2021

Lachstock Consulting, April 16, 2021

US wheat and soybean markets maintained gains. Corn settled lower.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US5.75c/bu to 653.75c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 4.25c/bu to 607.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 2.25c/bu to 663.25c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.25/t to €219.50/t ;
  • Corn May contract down 4c/bu to 590c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 8.25c/bu to 1418.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$2.10/t to $829.30;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €1/t to €508/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 91.6;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.776;
  • CAD weaker at $1.253;
  • EUR weaker at $1.197;
  • ASX wheat May contract up $2.50/t to $288.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $3/t to $300/t.

International

Wheat markets held up early gains to see Chicago close +5 3/4¢, KC +4 1/4¢, Miny +2 1/4¢, and Matif -1.25€ on the earlier close. Corn was off four cents and beans gained 8 1/4¢ (with Matif +1€, Winnipeg +$2.1) as we start approaching May delivery.  Crude was up thirty cents to $63.5 WTI / $66.9 Brent and the DOW closed over 34k for the first time ever after better than expected US economic figures breathed life into hopes of a recovery.  The USD is still off to 91.6, with the AUD up to 77.6¢, the CAD $1.253, and the EUR $1.197.

US retail sales grew 9.8 per cent, boosted this month by stimulus money and partial reopening of businesses, raising hope for recovery potential post-corona towards summer. Retail businesses, restaurants and bars are hoping for a continued surge in demand after the lockdowns.

Political tensions in Ukraine/Russia coming back to the headlines again with the US President signing new sanctions intended to restrict US purchases of Russian government debt, and blacklisting more Russian politicians.

Russia did announce that they would be partially closing the Kerch Strait, opening a few questions about grain loadings out of Azov sea ports but only officially closing it to other government ships.

Regular US export sales were very quiet on the old crop with 0.3Mt corn, a large volume of reported corn sales switched from unknown, 0.1Mt beans and net cancellations of wheat amounting to 0.056Mt.  New crop wheat sales of 0.274Mt were mostly to unknown, but also included cancellations of sales of HRW and White wheat, 0.130Mt combined, to China.

March NOPA crush was out with figures at 177.9 mbu, down from guesses over 179 mbu, although stocks were also on the low side at 1.77 billion.

Still hope/rumours going around about new Chinese wheat purchases this week, but more focus shifting towards reports of the sales being French, not US origin.

At the same time, there are questions raised by the large milo/sorghum sales – which included 0.659Mt of “late” milo to China.  Not the first time this year that sales have been “late” and some are questioning if more enforcement of the reporting obligations is needed to prevent such manipulation.

Algeria’s OAIC durum tender reportedly traded around a US$350/t C&F – that’s back a bit over 50¢/bu (about US$20/t) from their last purchases

The ongoing USDA data users meeting, scheduled to finish today in the US, has made some headlines after comments from officials that they will be taking a significant look into their quarterly stocks reports with the potential to update/change some methodologies later this year. Based on the dates reported, Lachstock does not see an impact for the next two stocks reports, but there may be an impact by the time the Dec stocks report is published.

Hog futures will have expanded price limits again for tomorrow’s session, to four and a half cents, after limit moves amid ideas of demand slowdowns. Another multi-week low on export sales didn’t help anything either.

Cattle markets also coming under pressure with board weakness and cash pressure also reported and bids were off across the country through the week so far.

Australia

East coast wheat markets firmed by $3-4/t yesterday, tracking the board moves.  Trade interest also lifted with some pickup in volume across the country

New crop markets also strengthened consistent with the global shift in both grains and canola

Looking towards a fairly dry weekend and nice fieldwork weather other than in the New England region where it’ll be raining.

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