Black Sea market analyst SovEcon noted Russian exporter activity in August remained record-high. As of 15 August, outstanding sales of Russian wheat reached 5.4Mt, up from 1.0Mt a year earlier. It anticipated a slowdown in sales due to the price spread between Russian and French wheats narrowing from US$51/t at the end of July to $7/t by mid-August. SovEcon estimated August wheat exports at 4.8-5.1Mt, with cumulative exports expected to reach 48.1Mt. 

Romania aims to double the monthly transit capacity of grains from Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Constanta to 4.0Mt in the coming months, according to its Transport Minister. The administration agency of the Danube River expects to have 60 pilots to navigate ships along the Sulina canal by the end of August, with an EU funded project making sailing possible at nighttime on the canal likely to be completed in October, which will allow the Romanian ports of Galati and Braila to be used alongside Reni and Izmail.

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his US corn and soybean yield and production estimates citing recent favourable weather and improved crop conditions. Dr Cordonnier raised his corn yield 1 bu. to 175 bu. per acre, increasing his production estimate to 15.1 billion bushels and his soybean yield by 0.5 bu. to 51 bu. per acre with production at 4.21 billion bushels. He has a neutral to slightly higher bias toward both crops, noting yields and acreage could increase a little for both.

Brazil’s Conab noted that as at 12 Aug, the 2022-23 second (safrinha) maize harvest was 72pc complete, with fieldwork in Mato Grosso at 99pc, with reports of generally satisfactory yields. However, heavy rainfall with strong winds hampered harvest progress in Paraná. 2023-24 wheat harvest was 4pc complete, slightly ahead of average, with fieldwork most advanced in Goiás. Favourable rainfall in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul aided crop development. 

Brazil’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) reported that cumulative marketing year (Mar-Feb) maize exports, at 10.7Mt were 4pc ahead of previous ytd. Soybean exports (Feb-Jan) at 76.0Mt were up 23pc from last year. 

USDA cumulative export inspections for the week ending 10 August for 2023-24 wheat were at 3.2Mt (-18pc previous year). 2022-23 sorghum net inspections at 2.5Mt were down 67pc, soybeans at 51.1Mt were down 8pc and maize at 35.6Mt down 33pc. 

Thai flour millers reportedly purchased 55,000 tonnes of Canadian WRS wheat (min. 13.5pc protein) at US$355.00-$358.00/t c&f for Oct/Nov shipment. 

Jordan reportedly purchased 60,000 tonnes of wheat at $295/t via tender that closed yesterday.

Australia

Local markets tracked sideways yesterday with values largely unchanged across the board on wheat and barley. New crop wheat Jan ASX traded at $411/t although for a small volume. Current crop barley continued to trade and pulses demand emerged for lentils and faba beans in the Victorian market. The AUD at 0.645 continues to support Aussie grain values. 

We are seeing some frosty starts to the morning through parts of Vic and southern NSW with temps falling to -1°C to -2°C which will be a concern going forward. 

The Australian Oilseeds Federation in its July crop report pegged 2023-24 canola crop size at 5.59Mt, down 30 percent from last year’s record of 7.93Mt. Noting conditions at the time of writing, it foreshadowed some downside. “Crops in WA are more likely to have a yield impact from drier conditions.” AOF chief executive officer Nick Goddard said. “Throughout most east-coast growing regions, sufficient sub-soil moisture in areas where crops are well established should mitigate against moisture stress, although warmer temperatures may impact flowering, pod and oil formation.”