Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 December 2020

Lachstock Consulting, December 16, 2020

Tuesday’s global futures markets lifted a little. 

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US 3.25 cents per bushel to 599.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 3.75c/bu to 566c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 2c/bu to 559.5c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1/t to €207.25;
  • Corn March contract up 0.75c/bu to 424.75c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 14.25c/bu to 1188.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$5.40/t to $601.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €2/t to €407.75;
  • Brent crude February up US$0.46 per barrel to $50.75;
  • Dow Jones index up 337 points to 30,199;
  • AUD firmer at $0.756;
  • CAD firmer at $1.270;
  • EUR firmer at $1.216.

International

  • US political leaders are speaking currently about a new stimulus bill to accompany the bipartisan govt funding bill. Sentiment has swung in favour of them reaching an agreement although the complaints are already coming in about the reported small size of the stimulus measures
  • US Federal Reserve outlooks are due out late tonight (Wednesday in the US), with expectations that they will paint a brighter picture into 2021 with the vaccine rollouts underway, but there’s uncertainty in markets about how much commitment they will make to further bond purchases
  • National Oilseed Processors Association reported 181 million bushels crushed in November, about a million above reported estimates and the biggest November on record.  Oil stocks were also up, at 1.56 billion lbs.
  • Russia’s export tax/quota situation continues, recent proposals now signed by the Prime Minister and the €25/t tax applied to shipments within the quota tonnage, and a tax of 50pc of fob price applying to over-quota tonnages, effective 15 Feb 2021.
  • Egypt’s GASC tender last night saw them buy four boats of wheat – two Romanian and two Ukrainian, but no Russian.  C&F values were in the low $280s per tonne (including GASC costings ) – up about $8/t from their recent buys, and the Russian offers that were in there were in the mid $280s per tonne FOB.  Little interest in taking the risk on timing and tax impacts it seems
  • Estimates out of China have their pig/sow herd down 10pc below pre-swine fever levels, but up significantly from post cull levels
  • Weather maps are still bringing widespread moisture to central Brazilian soybean areas into next week – below “average” for the time of year but still looking at a potential 70-80mm+ event for many

.

Australia

  • Cash board bids were lower by $1-2/t on wheat, while contract bids remained relatively unchanged. We saw liquidity in South Australia and WA lift on the online exchange platforms
  • Jan ASX 21 wheat also traded lower yesterday and settled at $284/t down $3/t.
  • Big focus now on Victorian bulk handling sites in terms of filling and hitting capacity. There have already been a handful of sites that have hit capacity on canola segregations, a good problem to have for the bulk handlers

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