Daily Market Wire 16 December 2022

Lachstock Consulting, December 16, 2022

ASX January 2023 contracts were unchanged yesterday.  Dow eased 2pc. AUD eased 2pc. DXY firmed a little. Brent crude eased.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract up US8 cents per bushel to 757.25/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract up 10.25c/bu at 860.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract up 1.5c/bu to 918.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €3.50/t to  €299/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract up US$0.25/t to $312.25/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract up 3c/bu to 653.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 8.25c/bu to 1476.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$2/t to $858.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €3.50/t to €558.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract settlement unchanged at A$390/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$310/t;
  • AUD dollar fell 2pc to US$0.670.


Stronger than expected US weekly export sales have been reported with wheat at 469,000 tonnes vs 150-350,000t expected. Corn at 959,000t versus 600-900,000t expected and soybeans at 2.94 million tonnes (Mt) versus 1.5-2Mt expected.

USDA estimates that 71pc of the winter wheat crop was experiencing drought, down 2pc from the previous week but 18pc greater than this time last year.

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange reports that, owing to the impact of prolonged drought and late-season frosts on yield prospects, especially in Cordoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, 2022-23 wheat production forecast cut by 300,000t from before, to 11.5Mt (23Mt previous year). Excellent productivity in Entre Rios prevented a further reduction in total output. Soybean production is forecast at 48Mt. However, final plantings could fall short of the estimated 17.1 million hectares (Mha) as hot and dry conditions continued to hamper planting progress. Maize production pegged at 56Mt, with final production largely dependent on late-sown varieties. Early-sown fields mostly seen in fair and poor condition.

Refinitiv Commodities Research see Argentina’s 2022-23 maize production 500,000t higher from before at 48.5Mt, reflecting slightly improved soil moisture following good rains during early December. Eastern Cordoba, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires received near to above normal rainfall during the past seven days, but the Pampas experienced continued warm and dry weather, albeit at a lower intensity than before. Overall rains were insufficient to replace soil moisture levels.

Strategie Grains forecasts 2023 EU soft wheat production at 128.7Mt, up 2.5pc from this year and corn up 26pc year-on-year to 63.7Mt.

Trade and industry officials from India report that higher prices are expected to result in 2022-23 rapeseed area expanding to 9.4-9.5Mha (9.1Mha previous year). Output could potentially reach a record high of 12Mt (compared to 11Mt).

Next year, the US will train bigger groups of Ukrainians on various strategies, such as coordinating ground infantry troops with artillery support. The decision to step up training comes as the administration is poised to send a Patriot antimissile battery, America’s most advanced ground-based air defence system

Algeria’s OAIC (state grains agency) bought about 500,000t milling wheat from optional origins, with the majority expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region and the EU, at $348-$349 C&F, Jan-Feb shipment.

Tunisia bought around 125,000t of durum wheat in an international tender closing this morning, with the lowest offer coming in at $504.50/t C&F.


Local markets continued to remain largely unchanged across boards. ASX Jan contract remained unchanged at $390 on the settle. SFW1 is well bid into Geelong Melbourne range for December and the harvest pace on wheat remains slow.

Wheat harvest in New South Wales has made significant progress in the past week but is still running well behind its normal pace for December, with headers expected to be rolling well into the new year. Southern growers are expected to get into their wheat harvesting ahead of Christmas now that canola and barley crops are off but there are still some pretty big question marks around the quality profile.

A freight train derailment on the Blue Mountains line west of Sydney is expected to disrupt the flow of containers into Sydney’s Port Botany for the rest of this month. Containers from central NSW can still get to port via northern and southern routes.


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