Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 16, 2024

The major downward moves, of more than 2 percent, occurred in Australian wheat, Winnipeg canola and US winter wheat markets. All others were lower by a lesser amount. The US Dollar Index eased again and the Australian dollar gained another half percent. The Dow Jones Industrials Average recovered last week’s loss.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down 15.75c/bu to 567.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 14c/bu to 570c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 5c/bu to 658.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €3/t to €199.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 7.5c/bu to 429.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 10.25c/bu to 1166c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$12.40/t to C$577/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €3/t to €421.50/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$7/t to $347.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$8.30/t to $351/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 34 points to US$0.6525

International

The USDA 2024-25 outlook forum was the main driver in last night’s move lower. The USDA provide estimates for future stocks and production. It is always an interesting report given it openly assumes normal conditions for the rest of the wheat growing season and the entire row crop year. Harvested percentages and yields are always somewhat ambitious but, in an environment where sentiment is already heavy, its added to the pile. 

From a yield perspective, the USDA pegs all wheat yield at 49.5bu/ac vs the 5-year average of 48.1bu/ac. Corn was pegged at 181bu/ac vs the 5-year average of 173.26bu/ac and soybeans came in at 52bu/ac vs the 5-year at 50.06bu/ac. It’s worth noting that the USDA outlook conference has been the high-water mark for yields for at least the last 5 years. 

Russian wheat FOB values remained offered with 11.5pc quoted another US$1.50/t lower to close at $212.25.  

US wheat export sales came in at 397,300mt ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA target but not really seeing a reaction to the lower levels. 

Consultant SovEcon increased Russian production to 93.6Mt (92.8Mt in 2023), FranceAgriMer said the 23/24 wheat stockpile is 3.5Mt vs previous estimates of 3.44Mt.

Egypt’s GASC saw FOB offers from $222 to $250/t from Russia, Romania and the Ukraine. 

The US retail sales came in below expectations at -0.8pc vs last print of 0.6pc and expectations of -0.2pc. This weakened the USD and gave the AUD a leg up over 0.65.

Australia

The eastern cereals market bled A$10/t yesterday, following the offshore movement and passing on the full movement. Sellers have gone to ground and the trade are struggling to find buyers on the other end. Much of the drift in value is due to demand standing aside as and watching the markets drift. 

ASX traded down to $351 for May. This marks the lowest point since January 2022. 

The 8-day forecast is calling for a dry week in WA, SA and Vic. Qld and NSW are forecasting falls ranging from 10-50mm in most cropping areas.

 

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