Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 February 2021

Lachstock Consulting, February 16, 2021

Markets in North America including CME and ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) were close Monday for Presidents’ Day and Family Day holiday. European exchanges were operating and values firmed. US dollar weakened a little.

  • Chicago wheat not quoted;
  • Kansas wheat not quoted;
  • Minneapolis wheat not quoted;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €4.75/t to €228.50/t;
  • Corn not quoted;
  • Soybeans not quoted;
  • Winnipeg canola not quoted;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €4.50/t to €454;
  • Brent crude April up US$0.80 per barrel to $63.23;
  • Dow Jones index not quoted;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 90.3
  • AUD firmer at $0.778;
  • CAD firmer at $1.263;
  • EUR firmer at $1.213

International

North America and China were in holiday mode overnight.  Chinese New Year celebrations will start wrapping up tomorrow with the country starting back to work on Thursday.

The cold snap across the central US peaked overnight with near zero (0F) temperatures reported all the way down into central Texas and rolling power blackouts catching global attention as electric heating demand spiked in the anomalous weather.

Winterkill concerns remain topical with the cold snap, though much of the southern Plains now has at least a couple inches of snow providing some insulation.  Field reports and estimates should start coming out later this week and into next week as weather warms back up. It’s always hard to judge cold snap injury at this point in the season but that won’t stop many from trying.

Algeria’s OAIC tender offers are due Tuesday and we should start seeing unofficial results leaking out to market some time into Wednesday/Thursday EU time.  Markets have firmed on Matif with the tender hitting.  There’s been much discussion about the specific discharge ports limiting overall purchase volume. The discharge ports are not entirely suitable for larger vessels. One consequence of restricted vessel size is that it’s beneficial to sellers of nearby origins such as France and other EU sellers, but disadvantageous to distant origins from which ocean freight would only be competitive in bigger vessels.

Moisture is again building on the extended run weather outlooks for central Brazilian soybean areas.  Near-term weather has been allowing for some pickup in harvest pace, but there’s still a significant backlog of field work to catch up on relative to “normal”.

Registration for USDA’s annual outlook forum webcast this Thursday/Friday US time is free and available here.  Markets will be watching closely for indications as to their initial views on acreage splits and demand into the new season. The official prospective plantings report will be released at the end of March.

Australia

Local trade yesterday caught some higher bids for AH2 wheat in southern Australia, amid some near-term shipment demand, but price moves generally were limited.

ABARES increased estimates of crops just harvested.

Weather maps still holding dry on the east coast and the forecasts for WA not seeing any shift of the storm towards crop areas.

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