Daily market wire 16 Jan 2017

Lachstock Consulting, January 16, 2017

Mixed for grains and oilseeds.

CBOT Wheat was down -0.25c to 426c, Kansas wheat up 4.25c to 449c, corn up 0.25c to 358.5c, soybeans up 6c to 1046.25c, Winnipeg canola down -1.80$C to 500.5$C, and Matif canola up 0.5€ to 415€. The Dow Jones down -5.27 to 19885.73 , Crude Oil down -0.489c to 52.52c, AUD down to 0.747c, CAD up to 1.313c, (AUDCAD 0.9816) and the was EUR down to 1.059c (AUDEUR 0.7052).

Wheat was stronger with the exception of the March SRW contract. Now that the acres have been realised, we need to see some old crop demand and more fundamental production threats to sustain recent rallies. The potential lies in recent dryness in India, and the potential for winterkill in the black sea and any production issues which may occur in Europe. Last week saw some active trading with the spec short now at 92.8 from 114.6 last week in SRW, whilst Kansas has switched from short to long 10k contracts.

Corn is struggling to break resistance and has no story from a fundamental perspective. Global and domestic US stocks are more than adequate, DDG imports into China will slow and ethanol margins are declining. Without its own story corn will follow beans in the near term as acres come into question.

Soybeans closed higher again, as moisture in Argentina threatens crop losses, with more rain on the forecast.

Canola was off, under pressure from a weakening soy oil market, once again testing the $500 level in the March contract.

In Australia, SA’s 25-50 mm forecast looks to have been delayed which may have enabled farmers to get remaining wheat harvested in time. Otherwise, no major inputs.

The AUD is trading just under .75 c, which is offsetting the recent gains in wheat.

The US market is closed today for the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday.



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