Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 16, 2021

Canola and US wheat lifted about 2 per cent, spring crops continuing to make the greatest gains.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US17.75c/bu to 672c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 12.5c/bu to 640.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 21.25c/bu to 894c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €0.50/t to €208.75/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 4c/bu to 564.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract unchanged at 1394.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$18.60/t to $912.10;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €9.25/t to €548/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 92.6;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.743;
  • CAD weaker at $1.259;
  • EUR weaker at $1.182;
  • ASX wheat July contract unchanged at A$300/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $6/t to $306/t.

International

Spring wheat continued its rally skyward again overnight, with Minny up 21 1/4¢ and dragging Chicago +17 3/4¢, KC +12.5¢.  Matif was up half a euro on the earlier close.  Corn is back four cents and beans unchanged (Matif +9.25€, Winnipeg +$18.6).  Meanwhile, on macro markets crude oil is off another buck fifty to $71.6 WTI / $73.5 Brent and the DOW is up 22 points.  The AUD has given up nearly half a cent to 74.2¢, the CAD $1.261, and the EUR $1.181.

Despite the ongoing concerns over new COVID-19 variants and outbreaks, the global economy has gradually continued to pick up pace. US new jobless claims, at 360,000 this week, reached lows not seen since the beginning of the pandemic. They were down nearly 10 per cent.

Spring wheat areas in the northern US and in the southern Canadian Prairies continue to bake in hot, dry weather.  There’s no relief forecast.  Private crop estimates continue to slide as crops wither in the heat.

In a similar vein, Russian crop estimates have been gradually slipping lower.  Markets are trimming yield ideas for spring wheat, areas in Kazakhstan and Siberia having been stressed by dry conditions. Winter wheat areas, particularly those later maturing zones, have also suffered heat and dryness towards the finish of their crops, and will likely harvest lower yields.

Corn Belt weather maps are also turning drier and hotter into later this month, but with favourable recent moisture and temperatures there’s little concern being expressed right now for eastern and central areas.

Regular export sales had wheat at 0.4 million tonnes (Mt), corn 0.13Mt similar old crop, and beans 0.3Mt.  There were no new flashes and no real surprises other than a boat of HRW wheat sold to Brazil.

European internal river barge movements are seeing some delays after flooding closed the Rhine River. It is expected to be back open early next week.

National Oilseed Processors Association June crush total was 152.4 mbu, off from 163 mbu prior month, and well below expectations.  Bean oil stocks were correspondingly tight at 1.5 billion pounds.

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange lifted the wheat crop forecast to 20.5Mt from its earlier estimate of 20Mt, citing higher area.

Stratégie Grain lifted EU crop estimates, revising non-durum wheat up 2Mt from previous forecast to 133Mt and barley up 1Mt to 55Mt.  The next “official” MARS crop report by the EU will be available on 26 July.

Australia

Local markets generally quiet in the gradual push toward spring.

The weather forecasts for WA continue to improve, with 30-40 mm predicted across the entire wheat belt early next week.  Over east, showers also are forecast for EP and southern parts of the Mallee.

 

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