International

Beneficial US weather and another round of follow through selling across the Ag markets post Friday’s bearish USDA reports were the main themes overnight. Most of the markets are reaching their lowest levels since various points in 2020. Funds continue to reel in (ever so slightly) their near record short corn position, but continue to add to their existing beans, soy oil and wheat short positions. 

Yesterday saw release of another poor round of data out in China. Second quarter GDP fell to 4.7pc, far below the 5pc which had been forecast. Monthly retails sales missed expectations, new home prices fell for the 11th consecutive month and property investment fell 10pc in the first half of 2024 compared to same period 2023. 

US winter wheat harvest is 71pc complete, estimates for Black Sea region put Ukraine greater than 30pc harvested and Russian winter wheat greater than 20pc harvested. 

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR,  joined USDA with its latest Russian wheat crop forecast of 83.2Mt (up from 82Mt), citing better yields in the Volga region. Russian cash values have held on over the past week to remain around US$220/t fob, quite impressive given the magnitude of fall in US values with SRW now in the $210-215/t fob US Gulf. 

US wheat is competitive and seeing increased demand, and we were reminded of this with export inspections higher than expected at 534k this week. 

US crop conditions reports were released after the close, both corn and soybeans were unchanged at 68pc G-E (the market was expecting 69pc). Spring wheat crop condition scores improved by 2pc to 77pc, compared to 51pc at the same week last year.

Australia

More of the same in the west, with canola values largely trading sideways to down. Yesterday new crop canola values opened the week at A$780/t fis. New season free-in-store (fis) wheat bids started the week slightly down at $360/t with feed barley bids at $320/t. There was a little bit of old crop buying activity via Clear Grain Exchange yesterday, all in the Kwinana port zone with APW1 trading at $375/t and H1 $403/t fis. 

In the east, new season canola values were relatively steady with only a small move to the downside. Wheat values held firm to start the week remaining largely unchanged, with barley starting the week being bid down $5/t compared with Friday. 

Darling Downs new crop pricing has been largely steady with both wheat and barley being bid $355/t, slightly down on Friday’s values. Current crop, at around $380 for both wheat and barley, is at a $25/t premium to new crop. Current crop wheat homes continue to be hard to find. 

Rainfall maps are starting to suggest a fill in for the coming week. There is set to be some welcome rainfall in the lower southeast of SA and into the Western Districts of Vic over the coming week. Models are predicting up to 50mm may fall in some parts.