Markets made mixed small moves overnight though French rapeseed futures settled 2pc lower.
- Chicago wheat July contract down US0.25 cents per bushel to 1050c/bu;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 9c/bu to 1133.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 7.25c/bu to 1201.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €0.50/t to €392.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract up $1/t to $411/t;
- Corn July contract up 5.75c/bu to 774c/bu;
- Soybeans July contract down 4.75c/bu to 1693.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$7.40/t at $1037/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €14.75/t to €754.25/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$0.50/t to $464.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $5/t to $470/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.700.
The mixed finish in the overnight markets reflects the uncertainty. The humanitarian corridor is unbelievably back on the table with Turkey suggesting it does not need to get rid of all the mines to access to the port. Sounds exciting. More news about EU helping Ukraine with grain storage it can access and the latest firming favourite is Poland.
Weather models are not aligning at all. Depending on which one is your favourite you either have “over 100 degrees” to “not so hot and wet”. The US row crop belt is now in the “weather market” phase of the growing season.
The thing about sliding markets is consumers go to ground. Such is the case in global wheat markets. Even with French crop conditions worsening over the past 6 weeks there are reports of French wheat offers into Asian flour millers.
In an interview with Russian media RBC, Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko said Russia’s budget received about 175b rubles in additional revenues from grain export duties in 2021 and in the first months of 2022.
There is additional noise around the ability of the Romanian supply chain to handle the extra flow from Ukraine. President Klaus Lohannis said the logistics supply chain faces challenges of “epic proportions”.
The US Fed reserve increased interest rates by 0.75 per cent (pc) on Wednesday. At a press conference that followed the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday’s move was “an unusually large one.” He added that he expected either a 0.50pc or 0.75pc increase at the July meeting.
Wednesday afternoon saw continued firmness in current crop wheat markets. KWI APW1 firmer $4-5/t by close of business. Delivered Geelong/Melbourne ASW1 and H2 also firmed by $5-6/t. Up country buyers along the east coast are still holding firm at their bids while grower offers are relatively unchanging, creating wide bid offer spreads in the market.
New crop markets rounded the day out also a touch firmer with softer AUD helping extract a bid. We saw small quantities trade on the Jan 23 ASX wheat contract which settled at $470/t, down $5/t.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) took the unprecedented move to suspend the National Electricity Market on Wednesday afternoon, meaning it will have the power to force generators (power suppliers) to bid electricity into the market. AEMO will continue negotiations today, in order to ensure energy supply is available for the coming week.