International

The reliance on the 49 million tonnes (Mt) that the USDA has pencilled in for Russian and Ukraine exports has suddenly become a massive question mark and one that the world simply needs. The details around the export ban are less than clear – the fact Egypt managed to secure 500,000t may take the sting out of the ban slightly but who knows. Just last week the USDA put a new crop Indian export figure of 8.5Mt. Given the set up and the fact the US has its own issues, it is hard to see why this isn’t blindly bought.

The wheat-corn spread at $4.40/bu seems too wide if the global feeder can’t get their hands on wheat.

Reuters out of Mumbai reported India banned wheat exports on Saturday, days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heat wave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high. The Indian Government said it would still allow exports backed by already-issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies “to meet their food security needs”.

Out of Cairo, Reuters yesterday reported Egypt’s government has agreed to buy 500,000t of wheat from India.

Australia

Friday trade took the local market another leg higher locally, with wheat and barley up A$10-15/t. ASW1 in WA pushed to $430/t FIS while barley got to $425/t FIS. Protein wheat markets in Victoria legged it higher with $490-$500/t track range for H2 through key sites. The northern execution program worsens with the lack of grain being moved and ability to get hold of prompt stock.

The current La Niña event continues to weaken, with oceanic indicators mostly at neutral levels. However, atmospheric indicators remain above La Niña thresholds, which means its influence continues. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD may develop in the coming months. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia.