Daily Market Wire 16 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 16, 2023

Contracts closed mostly higher in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US23.75 cents per bushel to 688c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 up 27c/bu to 873.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 25.5c/bu to 876c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 up €5/t to €243.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 unchanged at US $277.75/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up US6.25 c/bu to 592.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 10.75c/bu to 1400.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$17.90/t to $730.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 up €7.25 to  €423.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$3/t to $386/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at $317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar up 55 points to US$0.6700.


The United Nations says talks on the Black Sea corridor will continue before its scheduled end date of May 18.  Discussions to take place in Istanbul are expected to be at a more technical level, and involve all parties.

The Kremlin said on Monday it expected Russia’s co-operation with Türkiye to continue regardless of wins the country’s presidential election, which is set to go to a second round on May 28.

According to the latest Alberta Crop Report, 2023-24 sowing made significant progress over the past week, amid above-average temperatures, advancing to 24 percent complete by May 9 compared to the five-year average of 23pc. Spring wheat was 38pc complete, barley at 23pc and canola at 10pc. On May 6, a state of emergency was declared in the province due to wildfires, with a survey in the North West, North East and Peace regions indicating an adverse impact on some crop and pasture land. Wildfire-induced road closures and evacuations may adversely affect planting progress over the next week.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reports that as at May 12, cumulative 2022-23 grain exports totalled 43.5 million tonnes (Mt) versus 46.4Mt in the previous year, including wheat at 14.9Mt vs 18.5Mt, barley at 2.5Mt vs 5.7Mt, and maize at 25.6Mt vs 21.7Mt.

In the US, Honeywell International Inc. and Summit Agricultural Group are partnering to build the world’s largest ethanol-based aviation fuel plant. The facility will be located in the US Gulf Coast and will utilise Honeywell’s technology to transform ethanol into sustainable aviation fuel, known as SAF; it is expected to open in 2025. The global aviation market demands more than 100 billion gallons of jet fuel annually, with Summit estimating that figure will double in the next 20 years. The Biden Administration has announced a goal for SAF to meet 100pc of aviation fuel demand by 2050. Annual production in the US was 15 million gallons in 2022.


Market moves were a mixed yesterday, with wheat cash bids for current crop down A$3-$6/t while some site-specific grain was unchanged. Barley was a touch softer again through delivered and track markets on current crop, while new-crop markets remained largely unchanged. Canola was down $15-$20/t on the public bids.

South-east Queensland and far northern New South Wales have seen some significant rainfall totals overnight, with good soaking falls of 35-75mm for some, which will certainly be welcome.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month rainfall outlook for June-August, a 60-80pc chance of below-median rainfall is likely for the majority of Australia.  South-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, most of Victoria and southern New South Wales are seen as having a more than 80pc of below median rainfall.

The update noted that southern parts of the continent are at least twice as likely to receive unusually low rainfall, among the driest 20pc of records at this time of the year, including broad areas of the south-west and south-eastern parts of Australia.

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