Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 16, 2024

Markets closed mostly lower in overnight trading.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US7.75c/bu to 709.5c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat down 8.25c/bu to 709.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 7c/bu to 748.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €0.25/t to €255.25/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 4c/bu to 487c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 4c/bu to 1201c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$4.50/t to $669.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €1.50/t to €483.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down $2/t to $392/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley down $2.50/t to $337.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 66 points to US$0.6693.

International

Markets eased as the debate over Russian production continues. Market sentiment is of interes: prior to the USDA report, consensus was the Russian crop was circa 90 million tonnes (Mt). Post the USDA printing 88Mt, the race to the bottom began, and 85Mt is now mentioned far more in the wires than 90Mt. The Russian Ag Minister joined the party, estimating a wheat crop of 84.2Mt. Conditions have probably deteriorated, but balance sheets have significantly tightened over the course of five days. If you are working simply off the USDA numbers, major exporters ending stocks for 2024-25 is 54.25Mt, the lowest since 2012-13 at 53.81Mt. The next-lowest number is then 2007-08 at 42.72Mt, when wheat traded just under US$10/bu.

The US row-crop belt is wet; the 10-day forecast has over 250mm forecast for southern Illinois, 42pc of their corn crop is in the ground vs 63pc average; buying an ag market because it’s too wet is always a difficult proposition.

After seven stops, the US HRW tour is currently pegging yield at 29.7bu/ac versus 26.3bu/ac a year ago.

Australia

The local forecast now gets us to the end of May; while South Australia remains dry, the back end of the forecast has finally built some rainfall in for Western Australia in the Geraldton Zone in particular.

Kwinana grower bids are reflecting the production concerns with A$422/t for 2024-25 crop being bid yesterday. With US futures coming off slightly and the AUD firming, the December 2024 swap went home at $387.62/t, so basis is reflecting a $34.38/t premium.

Export demand is still kicking around, particularly in Victoria. SFW was bid into both Geelong and Portland for May delivery. While this is probably existing business, the export parity figures have been undoubtedly been skewed since the end of last week; Russia FOB is around US$235-$240/t.

 

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