Daily Market Wire 16 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 16, 2018

Higher for grains and mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat up 7.75c to 525c,
  • Kansas wheat up 7.5c to 531.75c
  • Spring wheat up 4.5c to 600.5c
  • CBOT corn up 4.5c to 378.25c
  • Matif corn up €1.75 to €174.50
  • Soybeans up 24c to 891.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola up C$3.20 to $497.90,
  • Matif canola down €0.50 to €371,
  • Dow Jones up 287.16 to 25339.99
  • Crude oil up 17c to 71.51c
  • AUD up to $0.7131,
  • CAD up at $0.7696,
  • EUR down to $1.158


Wheat finished higher following strength in beans and corn. Implied vol in Dec SRW finished at 21.75pc. Matif Wheat was down -0.25€ to 204.5€, Black Sea Wheat was unchanged at 248.5$ and the Ruble was up 0.63% to 0.01523. US weekly Inspections came in at 451,700t, which is 28.9pc behind last year’s pace. US export sales have been disappointing and the market will need to see this increase before we can sustain a prolonged rally. Traded volumes were on the low side in today’s session, with pit volumes for wheat options not trading. After the close winter wheat plantings were reported at 65pc vs 67pc last week. In demand news Syria and Jordan will tender for more wheat this week. Otherwise there is nothing new for wheat, the US needs to see more demand for futures strength to continue.


Corn finished higher supported by harvest delays and technical strength, but grower selling prevented it reaching its full potential. Today’s close suggests technical strength, with the next resistance US12c/bu higher. Export inspections came in at 995,000t which are slightly below trade expectations. Crop progress had corn 39pc harvested vs. 34pc last week, while conditions were unchanged at 68pc good to excellent.


Beans finished higher with snow in the northern cropping belt resulting in mould issues. The Nov contract broke a strength of technical resistance to finish at levels not seen since late August. US crush data for September featured a new record of 4.37 million tonnes (Mt), while export inspections surprised the market at 1.156Mt. Within these export inspections were two cargoes to China. Soybean Meal was up 10.1US$ per tonne and Soy oil was down -0.37points. US harvest came in at 38pc complete vs. 32pc last week, conditions were down 2pc at 66pc good to excellent. This market is not rallying on demand, which suggests that we’ll need to see some prompt trade resolutions for things to continue higher.


Canola finished mixed across the two contracts, with Winnipeg futures following the momentum in US vegoils. Matif finished fractions lower but showed good strength into the finish with a slightly higher currency combining with low traded volume to see force the weaker close.


Aussie markets were slightly higher yesterday in low volume with US futures strength adding another level of support that discouraged potential sellers. The forecast looks similar to yesterdays with 10-15mm in NSW and SQLD. Sorghum prices look to have gained slightly on last week, but grower selling should add weight at some point given the record price level and excellent starting moisture

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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