Daily Market Wire 16 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 16, 2023

Friday’s crude oil price rallied 5 percent leading canola and rapeseed firmer. Grains and soybean moves were small.

  • Chicago wheat December up US8.25c/bu to 579.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December down 6c/bu to 669c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 1.5c/bu to 722c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December up €4/t to €237.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 2.75c/bu to 493.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 6c/bu to 1326c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November up C$7.40/t to C$720/t;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$9/t to $733.50/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 up €10.50/t to €425.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €11.25/t to €451/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$13/t to $403/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$5/t to $335/t;
  • AUD dollar down 18 points to US$0.6296


Egypt’s GASC purchased 470kt of wheat in an international tender last Thursday including 300kt from Russia, 120kt from Romania and 50kt from Bulgaria for December shipment at $276-279/t c&f, bringing total purchases for the 2023-24 to 2.96Mt. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 11 October Argentina 2023-24 wheat conditions rated at 58pc fair/excellent (51pc previous year). Because of lower than initially estimated yields amid persistent dryness in the central and northern parts, it cut its wheat production forecast by 0.3Mt, to 16.2Mt (12.2Mt previous year). It reported maize planting at 19pc complete (16pc previous year). While limited rainfall aided progress in some areas, lack of sufficient moisture could affect planned area for early planted crop. Recent frosts reportedly impacted emerged plots, with the extent of damage to be assessed within the coming days. 

China’s October CASDE revised 2023-24 maize production up 3.3Mt to 288.2Mt (277.2Mt previous year) reflecting higher than previously estimated yields owing to better than normal weather conditions in major producing regions.

Senior EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell told a Friday press briefing in Beijing that he had asked the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use China’s influence on Russia to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

Six more vessels appeared to be heading to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Thursday and Friday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

China imported 7.15Mt of soybeans in September, down 2.21Mt from the previous month and 0.57Mt less than last year. China has imported 77.8Mt of soybeans between Jan-Sept, up 14pc from the same period last year. 

US private exporters reported fresh current marketing year sales of 181,000 tonnes SRW wheat for destination China and 117,300 tonnes soybeans, destinations unknown.


Local markets firmed a little to finish off the week, largely reflecting offshore strength. Cooler weather is helping to finish crops through southern NSW & Vic but the race has already been run through most of central and northern NSW. Prompt markets are getting filled off the header through southern Qld and are weighing on deferred values slightly. The ASX eastern Australia Jan 24 wheat contract closed up at $403/t after trading at the sub-$390/t mark. 

The 8-day forecast is looking like eastern Vic and parts of southern NSW are the only ones in for some rainfall this week, with storms passing through this morning (totals expected to be around 5-15mm) accompanied by well below average temps. All other cropping regions are looking dry.


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