Markets

Daily Market Wire 16 September 2020

Lachstock Consulting, September 16, 2020

Most markets were lower .

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US7.5 cents per bushel to 538.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 5.5c/bu to 468c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 6.25c at 524.25c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €2 per tonne to €186.75;
  • Corn December contract down 3.5c/bu to 366c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 8c/bu to 991.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola November down C$2.40 to $520.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €3.25/t to €387.50;
  • Brent crude November contract up US$0.92 per barrel to $40.53;
  • Dow Jones index up 2 points to 27,996;
  • AUD firmer at $0.730;
  • CAD weaker at $1.320;
  • EUR weaker at $1.184.

Markets

Bulls need feeding, and overnight markets closed mostly lower with a vacuum of bullish information on the wheat side.  Whether you are sitting in the US or in Australia, China is the main topic of conversation i In the context of the risk premium built into Chicago futures protecting the “what if” China comes and buys a bunch of Soft Red Winter wheat.  The announcement that China will be watching Australian vessels more closely was of particular interest to the US exporter.

The dichotomy of the Chinese feed market strength versus political tightening of suppliers is a hard one to follow. With 57 million tonnes (Mt) of corn released from its reserves, and speculation it could import over 20Mt, there is clearly demand. Restricting suppliers via increased scrutiny over quality is subsequently difficult to understand.

The US corn harvest is just around the corner, and it will be interesting to see how estimates develop given excessive moisture

Australia

Wheat values along the east coast and South Australia remained relatively unchanged yesterday through new-crop grower bids, while Western Australia grower bids for multigrades have been firming over the week, with the Grain Industry of WA lowering its production estimate for  the WA crop

New-crop canola values pushed higher yesterday by AU$3-4/t in the east coast domestic crush market and in WA, and global oilseed values have also firmed.

Traders, growers and consumers are all hanging out for this next rain event to see what falls where to secure crop production and lock in yield potential.

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