Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 April 2020

Lachstock Consulting, April 17, 2020

Markets mostly weaker.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US10.5¢/bu to 529.75¢;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 9.5c to 470¢;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 7.75c to 506.75¢;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €1.75/t to €196.50;
  • Corn May contract up 0.5c/bu to 319.75¢;
  • Soybeans May contract down 5.25¢/bu to 836.75¢;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down $C1.70 to $457.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €2/t to €371;
  • Brent crude June contract up US$0.13 per barrel to $27.82
  • Dow Jones index up 23 points to 23538;
  • AUD unchanged at $0.6320;
  • CAD firmer at $1.408;
  • EUR weaker at $1.084.

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Markets

Wheat took a hiding yet again, with no story to excite the bulls as Russian weather maps continue to improve and short term demand stagnated.

Chicago ended the session down 10 1/2¢ to 529 3/4¢, KC -9 1/2¢ to 470¢, Minny -7 3/4¢ to 506 1/4¢, although Matif was up 1.75€ to 196.5€ on the earlier close after GASC results saw three French boats in the mix and left a few questions about the one Russian boat in there given export restrictions.  LSC assumes they’ll sort it out without major hassle.  Corn picked up half a cent to 319 3/4¢ and 341 Z futures are leaving many US row crop farmers frustrated they didn’t sell when it was >400. Beans dropped 5 1/4¢ to 836 3/4¢ (Matif up two euros to 371€, Winnipeg -$1.7 to $457.7).

Crude remains weak, with WTI at $19.9, Brent $27.8, and the DOW was nearly unchanged (+33 points) as questions about the potential for economic “re-opening” remain.  US unemployment figures have spiked yet again, unsurprising given lags in processing and shut downs.  The volatility in risk assets through recent weeks has swung back towards safety. The US dollar index lifted over 100 again in a flight to safety.  The AUD traded to 63.2¢, the CAD $1.408, and the EUR $1.084.

The Russian weather map news this week just gets better.  They’re forecasting a good inch across much of the south and the Volga region.  Romania lifted its old crop export ban after less than a week old, but it’s a non-event to the market given the limited availability of wheat there prior to new crop harvest. Spring crops are still being planted across the Black Sea region and will benefit from the same moisture event, though the benefit of the forecast rain would be less beyond the Ural Mountains.

US spring wheat planting is also set to push off with a bang – field prep and pre-planting activities happening across the northern plains this week as farmers there look towards warmer weather next week and hope to get moving.

US weekly wheat export sales were reasonable for wheat, with new crop at 419,000t and old crop at 178,000t.  Corn was within expected range, at 900,000t, while beans continued to disappoint with only 245,000t reported and no new sales to China.  Other sales to China included two boats of milo, switched from unknown, and there was another chunk of pork sold to China.

Egypt’s GASC booked four wheat boats, three of which were French. The one HRW offer wasn’t booked, but its price wasn’t entirely out of ballpark and the old crop delivery position places it in a relatively tight window.

Cash ethanol has firmed following the plant shutdowns. US Grains Council said Gulf values were up 7.5pc in a week. The price rise is nowhere near the level needed to reopen capacity.

 

Australia

Australian markets were a hair softer yesterday though generally quiet in the trade.  More offers appeared and demand was relatively steady. Victorian planting is beginning to gain pace on canola and longer season wheat varieties and across southern NSW the reports to date are good on early planted wheat and canola. But the main planting for canola is just getting started and should pick up speed through this week and next.

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