Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 17, 2021

Canola lifted 1pc to 2pc. Wheat and corn softened a little.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US0.75c/bu to 775c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 5.75c/bu to 749.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.5c/bu to 927c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €5.50/t to €254.25/t;
  • Corn December contract was down 4.25c/bu to 568.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract up 3.25c/bu to 1368.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$18.10 to $912.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €7/t to €574/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 92.6;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.731;
  • CAD weaker at $1.259;
  • EUR weaker at $1.177;
  • ASX wheat September contract up A$4/t to A$350/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $2/t to $345/t.

International

In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 0.75 usc/bu closing at 775usc/bu, Kansas was -5.75 usc/bu lower to settle at 749.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -2.5 usc/bu to go out at 927usc/bu. Corn fell -4.25 usc/bu to go out at 568.75usc/bu while Beans were up 3.25 usc/bu to settle at 1368.25usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 18.1 CAD/mt closing at 912.4CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 7 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 110.02 points, Crude was down -1.12 bbl the Aussie was -0.0032 points lower to settle at 0.7335, the CAD rallied 0.0065 while the EUR fell -0.0013

Monday was a pretty boring market given the fireworks that have become the norm.

After the market closed the USDA progress and conditions report published.

The corn good-to-excellent rating fell 2pc to 62pc compared with the trade guess of 64pc, 73pc of the corn crop is dough stage, up from 54pc last week and only just behind last year’s 74pc at this time.

Beans good-to-excellent rating fell 3pc, now pegged at 57pc, 94pc of the bean crop is blooming, up from 91pc last week and is smack on the 5-year average.

Spring wheat good-to-excellent rating was unchanged at 11pc. The poor-to-very-poor rating increased 2pc to 64pc.

Russian pricing is a hot mess. Domestic values keep increasing daily while FOB values were quoted by IKAR (Institute for Agricultural Market Studies) US$20/t higher over the week. Given the Russians introduced a new tax calculation model to address domestic price inflation it would seem something is not working. Clearly the reports of disappointing yields are being validated by the price movement.

The French harvest is struggling to progress with constant rain delays. This comes on the back of an exceptionally hot start to the grainfill stage and it is logical to realise that quality would be extremely mixed. Algeria is looking for some wheat for the second half of September, which will be an interesting source of price discovery.

Australia

With rallying international prices, export demand and stem capacity are actively being priced in WA. WA cereal prices trading some A$40/t above east coast prices (FIS/Track). Meanwhile on the east coast as we move into spring, total production prospects are keeping a lid on domestic markets and margins available for traders to build positions destined for the export corridor are very healthy.

Some in the domestic market have turned their attention to 2022/23 crop with prices on offer well above long term averages driven by international strength.

Domestic consumers are patiently sitting on their hands waiting for harvest selling pressure, but their nerve is being tested by the recent rally pushing local silo prices above drought-type levels for wheat. Many consumers will be forced to increase barley in the ration at current spreads to wheat.

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