Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 17, 2022

Corn eased another 3pc. Wheat and oilseeds fell lesser amounts.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US15 cents per bushel to 802.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 11.75c/bu to 873.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 10.25c/bu to 912.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €7/t to €322.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $4.50/t to $340.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 18c/bu to 610.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 31.25c/bu to 1381c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$23/t to $813.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €7.75/t to €624.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$1/t to $404/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at $A300/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.702.

International

Five more ships have left Ukrainian ports carrying corn and wheat, three from Chornomorsk and two from Pivdennyi, Turkey’s defense ministry said on Tuesday. Four more ships bound for Ukraine were to be inspected in Istanbul on Tuesday. Ukrainian Deputy Infrastructure Minister Yuriy Vaskov said Ukraine could export 3 million tonnes (Mt) grain from its ports in September and may in the future be able to export 4 Mt from them monthly. He said that there have been applications for 30 ships to come to Ukraine in the next two weeks to export grain.

Weather forecaster Maxar reports that below or near-normal temperatures are expected in northwest Europe early next week after the current heat wave, but the centre of the continent will turn hotter again later on. Strong heat is forecast to linger in the northeast, and is also expanding in southwest Europe by the middle of next week.

Debate about the size of the Russian crop continues with leading consultancy and Black Sea market analyst SovEcon raising its estimate to 94.7 Mt up from 90.9Mt, based on record or near-record wheat yields for most regions of central Russia, the Volga River and southern Russia. It commented the optimistic yield outlook was likely to have a limited impact on the global market as 2022/23 Russian exports remains painfully slow. On the same day Black Sea region agricultural consultant UkrAgroConsult pegged the wheat harvest in Russia at 86.4Mt, up 1Mt from a prior estimate.

Saudi Arabia’s SAGO purchased 180,000t wheat through the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) for Oct-Feb arrival.

Australia

Local new crop values softened again yesterday. Wheat was off $3-5/t, barley was off a further $5-6/t and canola fell $30-40/t. . Limited new crop liquidity is flowing into the market while prices are falling. Wide eastern Australian feed grade spreads are making growers gun shy about committing to multi grade contracts.

The BOM ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña Alert. This is due to both renewed cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean as well as climate models indicating a La Niña event is likely during spring and early summer. Historically, when La Niña alert criteria have been met, a La Niña event developed around 70pc of the time. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer which may not be a good thing this year, with saturated moisture profiles and water storage at capacity in many areas.

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