Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 December 2019

Guest Author, December 17, 2019

Futures were up as the shorts bailed amid China-US trade optimism.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up 17.25 cents per bushel to 549.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 19.25 cents to 462c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 11.25c/bu to 537c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €3.25 to €186.50/t;
  • Corn March contract up 7c to 388c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 14.5c/bu to 922c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$1/t to $462/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €3.50/t to €403.50/t;
  • Brent crude February contract up US$0.12 to $65.34 per barrel;
  • Dow Jones index up 100 points to 28235 points;
  • AUD unchanged at $0.6880;
  • CAD stronger at $1.316;
  • EUR stronger at $1.114.

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On and up across the board as shorts bail amidst trade war optimism – Chicago wheat ended +17 1/4¢ to 549.75¢, KC +19 1/4¢ to 462¢,  Matif +3.25€ to 186.5€.  Corn closed +7¢ to 388¢, beans +14.5¢ to 922¢, and Winnipeg canola ended +80¢ to 461.8 (Matif +3.75€ to 403.5€).  Crude oil is steady around 60.2 WTI / 65.3 Brent and the DOW picked up 100 points.  The AUD is trading at 68.8¢, the CAD at $1.316, and the EUR at $1.114 – and the pound is up to $1.328.

There’s still no real formal understanding of how China will fulfil their reported commitments to sharply increase US agricultural purchases but rumours and speculation abound.

One of the more apparently likely rumours is that they’ll make part of this in ethanol, which would also help them with their domestic drive to increase ethanol blending.

Meat looks likely to be a big component.

Other rumours about wheat and bean sales are still being sounded out, and we’ll see what may eventuate.

Meanwhile, worries are continuing to compound about global winter wheat conditions and acres for new season crops.

We’ll get US figures out in Jan, though ideas there have gradually consolidated down towards lower acres, after some bigger estimates earlier on considering SRW pricing and prevent plant zones.

After indications that French acres would be down ~5pc+ the other week, comments from Ukraine are suggesting a 10pc drop there and there are some similar concerns in parts of Russia.

There are also still ongoing concerns about beans in parts of northern Argentina, but current forecasts are bringing some improvements to the weather there into next week and Brazilian beans have done well in the last week or so after showers.

Australia

Locally, Aussie markets continue to climb higher on the grower boards!

Markets kicked off the week higher by $2-3/t on wheat and a fraction higher on barley although liquidity is reasonably low.

Canola also moved higher on the boards by $2-3/t in Geelong/Melbourne zone.

Harvest progress continues to truck on, with large part of the South Australian and Victorian Mallee region coming to an end.

Western Victoria continue the week with canola harvest and starting to get into faba beans, we will be seeing this regions harvest go well and truly into January.

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