Friday’s futures in rapeseed and corn firmed; wheat markets continued lower.
- Chicago wheat March contract down US5.25cents per bushel to 741.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract down 14.75c/bu to 745c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March down 17.25c/bu to 878.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract down €2.25/t to €263.50;
- Corn March contract up 8.75c/bu to 596.25c/bu;
- Soybeans March contract down 7.5c/bu to 1369.75c/bu
- Winnipeg canola March 2022 contract down C$1.90/t to $982.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €29.75/t to €770/t;
- ASX Jan 2022 wheat contract down A$12.50/t to $345/t.
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $1/t to $355/t.
- AUD dollar down to US$0.719
Black Sea wheat closed down $2.75/t.
Wheat futures have reaffirmed the old adage that bulls need feeding. With little to no new information to keep the longs satisfied they head for the exit. Such is the nature of the wheat market that the door way is always just a little too small. It is that time of year demand has done a good job of keeping everyone engaged but, with northern hemisphere crops asleep for the winter and Aussie and Argentine winter crop production all but done, there is a void of information. Even Russian/Ukraine relations going from bad to worse can’t stop the bleed. Not sure if the US are helping or hindering the situation. It seems they are throwing a few rocks suggesting the Russians might be throwing a “crazy Ivan” with the plan to create a real reason to roll into the Ukraine. Regardless of US intentions it is no coincidence that a number of government websites were cyber attacked.
It would seem the Argentine bean crop is not out of the woods just yet. Very hot conditions over the weekend in Argentina and Uruguay will need balancing by the much-anticipated rain event. There is still time for the bean crop but 40 degrees with not much moisture under the crop will not help.
Europe is seemingly heading back to lockdown with many countries restricting the movement of those who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Austria has taken these measures along with introducing mandatory shots from 1 February 2022.
It’s a long weekend in the US so we don’t get a look at market sentiment until Tuesday.
Local cash bids to growers rounded out the week relatively unchanged.
January ASX wheat fell $12.50/t as its expiry approaches and with large volume of Brisbane wheat being declared.
Barley continued to find its bid through the export and domestic pathway over the week.
Canola fell again on Friday on the bid side but markets remain thin for now.
The new year weather issues continue to cause headaches for growers as headers roll through the tail end of the program.
The updated BOM 8-day forecast this morning has widespread 25-50mm falls for a large part of northern NSW, which will continue to boost summer crop potential. The forecast for southern NSW and into Victoria has backed off, since late last week, with 5-15mm forecast. South Australia forecast has been increased with moisture pushing down from the north.
Source: Lachstock Consulting