Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 17, 2024

US markets mostly eased on Tuesday having been closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. public holiday. Rapeseed firmed and the Australian dollar eased about 1 1/2 per cent against the US dollar.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down 14c/bu to US582c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 13.75c/bu to 601.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 8.75c/bu to 690.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €1.50/t over two days to €214.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 3.75c/bu to 455.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 2.75c/bu to 1238.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$1.70/t over two days to C$636.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €6/t over two days to €427.25/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$1/t over two days to $371/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley down A$6/t over two days to $308.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 103 points over two days to US$0.6584

International

The Iowa Caucus kicked off this week in the US with Trump landing a big win. The Caucus and primaries are two ways the Republicans and governing democrats choose their candidates. Most of the US states hold primaries, while a few states, including Iowa, hold Caucus’ to elect delegates. Iowa was the first cab off the rank in the road to deciding who will represent the Republican nominee – the process finishes on the 4th of June with Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota putting in their votes. This culminates at the Republican National Convention on the 15-18 of July – while the Democrats sign off on the 19-22 of Aug. SportsBet has Donald paying 1.17 with Nikki Haley at 6.00. The Democrats still have Joe at 1.28, then Gavin Newsom at 8.50. 

The Houthis have claimed responsibility for an attack carried out on an American vessel on the Gulf of Aden on Monday. The M/V Gibraltar Eagle a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier owned and operated by US-based Eagle Bulk suffered only minor damage.  

The extremely diverse weather patterns experienced across the Brazil soybean producing regions so far this growing season has led to a very wide range in production estimates. AgRural, a Brazil-based private consultancy slashed its 2023/24 forecast for Brazilian soybean production by 9 million tonnes (Mt) to 150.1Mt, to below that of government-affiliated forecasters Conab. A farmers’ association has claimed production is lower still, at just 135Mt. These all compare to the USDA number of 157Mt released in the 12 Jan WASDE report. 

European farmers continue to protest against an increase in environmental restrictions and associated costs, mainly centred around nitrogen emissions. 100,000 tractors lined the streets of Berlin last Monday.

Australia

Victorian market prices mostly were unchanged yesterday, while a touch firmer in NSW. We have seen the Vic/NSW spread regrow since harvest. 

The Qld market continues to show lacklustre performance with previously booked commitments covering requirements and creating a nearly non-existent market for prompt delivery. Moving into the second quarter will we see a firm red meat market change this sentiment? 

Canola was firmer again following some offshore gains, but still seen to be the last preference to sell by growers. 

WA canola’s latest trades were A$700/t FIS Kwinana, with CAG at $660/t FIS. 

With some continued export demand WA wheat values held up pretty well, APW1 quality and above going north of $400/t FIS in Kwinana and Albany.

 

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