Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 17, 2022

Little movement in the market overnight, except for Chicago wheat which rose 2.5pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US28.25 cents per bushel to 1078.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 15.25c/bu to 1148.50c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 7.75c/bu to 1209c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €5/t to €397.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $3.50/t to $414.50/t;
  • Corn July contract up 14.25c/bu to 787.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract up 15.75c/bu to 1709.50c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$10.10/t at $1073.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €3/t to €757.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$6.5/t to $458/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $2/t to $472/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.703.

International

A day when the bullish news lined up. The catalyst was rumours that Indonesia has bought Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. This would be significant non-traditional business for a balance sheet that really doesn’t need much to tighten things up. This returned the focus to the heat in France, the slow and dry planting in Argentina, and the fact we still don’t have any sort of resolution on Ukrainian export pathways.

Row crops are in a weather market. Nothing unusual but it’s hot, and there seems to be little in the way of meaningful rainfall for the next two weeks.  The pressure in the corn balance sheet is the need to hit a 177 bushels per acre to keep the balance sheet comfortable. A drop of 5bu/ac takes ending stocks from 1.4 billion bushels (Bbu) to right on 1Bbu, all else being equal.

Argentina’s Economy Ministry will allow increased levels of biodiesel in fuel to address shortages of diesel fuel. The use of biodiesel will increase to 12.5pc from the current 5pc for a period of 60 days and remain at 7.5pc after the 60-day period.

The leaders of France, Germany and Italy visited Kyiv as part of a high-profile trip to smooth tensions over what Ukrainian officials perceive as lukewarm support in their fight against Russia.

Australia

Markets were once again relatively unchanged on old and new crop. Liquidity picked up through the up-country depots and the delivered markets for Geelong and Melbourne saw some activity on wheat for July.

A dry week for Queensland and northern and central New South Wales has allowed paddocks to dry out, cotton to be picked, sorghum to be harvested and more winter crop get in the ground. Rainfall totals were less than 5mm for most of southern NSW, but temperatures have been very cold. Most of Victoria and South Australia received varying totals between 5-25mm. Weekly totals for Western Australia were higher with most cropping regions receiving 10-50mm.

The eight-day forecast has nothing on the radar for Queensland and northern NSW and 1-10mm for central and southern NSW. All other states are forecast to receive 5-22mm.

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