Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 17, 2021

Corn continued its correction from contract highs reached a week ago. Other markets firmed and the US dollar weakened.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US5.75c/bu to 707.25c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract unchanged at 657.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 0.5c/bu to 740.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €2/t to €218/t;
  • Corn July contract down 31c/bu to 643.75c;
  • Soybeans July contract up 2.25c/bu to 1586.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$14.50/t to $871.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €15/t to €547.75/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.5 to 90.3;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.778;
  • CAD firmer at $1.211;
  • EUR firmer at $1.215;
  • ASX wheat July contract down AU$1.70/t to $314.80/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $5.50/t to $315/t.

International

It was a rather subdued way to finish the week. Chicago wheat was up 6.25usc/bu, to settle at 707.25usc/bu, Kansas was a push and Minni finished the red side of unchanged. Corn was down 30usc/bu to close at 643.75usc/bu. Beans rallied 7usc/bu to finish the week at 1591usc/bu with meal quoted slightly lower to close at USD$418.5/st. Oil rallied hard, closing at 67.58usc/lb., up 2.01usc/lb. Canola finished in the black, Matif up EUR$15/mt and WCE was up CAD$14.50/mt. Outside markets saw the Dow forge 360.68 points higher, and the Aussie was trading at 0.77644
Corn was belted due mainly to an independent commentator suggesting the acreage could be 96.8m acs – 5.7m ac more than the USDA has pencilled in. Based on USDA’s yield this pretty much solves any corn problem – if it’s true. Conversely, they tightened the spring wheat acres which has the opposite effect on the balance sheet.
Weather presents a few global spot fires. The Canadian plains are desperate for a drink, and there’s some chatter around the spring wheat areas of the Black Sea, some respite for the Brazil corn belt with 100mm forecast in the southern belt baked into the 15 day outlook, and the debate will be “is this all too late?”
While the corn market is showing signs of some weakness post the USDA report, demand has not let up. China flashed another 1.36 million tonnes (Mt) which pegs their new crop shopping list at 5.3Mt including the early sales in the unknown bucket.
The tech crowd is getting more vocal re the charts – both corn and soybean meal certainly present some challenges to the bulls if viewing markets purely from a technical perspective.

Australia

The winter cropping zones from Geraldton to Dalby are at various stages of winter crop planting adding to the spot market logistics squeeze.
The local market held up reasonably well in the face of a softer futures, finishing down $2-3/t for the week, following the release of the USDA report.
Canola found new highs with PKE track reaching $784/t, but felt some basis pressure following a very helpful 10-15mm of rain for the week through the NSW Central West which spurred on some more grower selling. Victoria on the other hand held its recent basis form as crop establishment is far from being realised.
There’s limited rain for the east coast on the 8-day forecast but WA continues the dream run with another ~10mm on the forecast.

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