Daily Market Wire 17 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 17, 2023

Most quoted markets closed lower in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US11 cents per bushel to 677c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 up 2.5c/bu to 876.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 5.5c/bu to 881.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €4.75/t to €239/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US1.25/t to $276.50/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract down US11.25c/bu to 581.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract down 36.75c/bu to 1364c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$1.60/t to $729.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 down €15 to  €408.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$4/t to $390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at $317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.6654.


According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, corn production will fall 23 percent to 21 million tonnes (Mt) and exports in 2023-24 will plunge 30pc to 19Mt. For wheat, UGA forecasts production of 17Mt, down 16pc from last year, while exports for 2023-24 are expected to fall 10pc to 14Mt. Sunflower seed production is expected to jump 20pc to 13Mt.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has forecast wheat production to increase 45pc year on year after last season’s drought. Wheat planting is forecast to increase 3pc to 6.3M hectares. No change is seen from last season’s barley area, but better weather would boost production 32pc from last year to 5Mt.

Dr Michael Cordonnier has raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate another 1Mt to 155Mt, noting yields in Rio Grande do Sul ended up a little better than expected. Dr Cordonnier also raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate 1Mt to 125Mt, noting the safrinha crop is one week closer to the end of the growing season without a major frost or freeze. Developing dryness in some central and southern areas is keeping his Brazilian corn estimate conservative compared to others. Dr Cordonnier left his crop estimates for Argentina at 23Mt for soybeans and 35Mt for corn

European Commission data shows EU’s cumulative soft-wheat exports at 27.2Mt as of May 14, compared with 24.3Mt the previous year. Leading destinations include Morocco on 4.24Mt, Algeria on 3.84Mt and Nigeria on 2.32Mt. EU barley exports were 5.8Mt, compared with 6.73Mt the previous year, and corn imports are at 23.6Mt, compared to 14.3Mt over the same period in 2021-22.

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 113,555t of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.


Local cash markets were a few dollars stronger on wheat across the boards, with ASW1 in Western Australia up A$3-$4/t and trading actively over the day. Barley remained relatively flat throughout the day, and canola bids were a touch firmer among thin trade.

Growers are now searching for that next rain event from WA around to parts of eastern Australia, while some areas are very wet in western Victoria. We are hearing more reports that mice are giving early emerging crops a hard time in central and southern New South Wales, and slugs remain a big problem in western Vic, with slug bait in high demand

There is currently 3.5Mt of wheat on the shipping stem for May, 583,000t of barley, 422,000t of canola and 245,000t of sorghum. Port wait times increased slightly across most major ports. The highest average wait time to load is 12 days, with 14 vessels anchored and 13 loading at Australian ports.

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