Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 17, 2024

Oilseeds posted gains while grain markets eased in overnight trading.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US2.5c/bu to 707c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat down 1.75c/bu to 707.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 3.75c/bu to 744.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 down €1.75/t to €253.50/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 5.25c/bu to 481.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 2c/bu to 1199c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$3.90/t to $673.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €1.75/t to €481.75/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down $0.50/t to $391.50/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at $337.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 15 points to US$0.6678.

International

Chicago wheat eased slightly with selling keeping it in the range. Russian cash added another US$1/t to be quoted at $236/t. On weather markets, for every report about how bad Russian prospects are, you can find one focused on how good HRW is and how bad demand is. Russia still has time to shame the sub 85-million-tonne (Mt) crowd, but the forecast isn’t helping.

Stratégie Grains increased the EU soft wheat production to 123.5Mt, with Spain, Romania and Bulgaria adding to production, while also flagging the outlook for increased rainfall as being cause for concern.

The HRW crop tour pegged the Kansas yield at 46.5bu/ac, way above last year’s 30bu/ac crop tour guess.

Brazil’s safrinha corn continues to get pounded by extreme temperatures. The forecast has temperatures peaking at 35 degrees Celsius, some 7 degrees above normal, and while the key pollination period is over, the lack of moisture and extreme heat will be negatively affecting yield. Also on corn, the Mexican crop is burning up with close to record low rainfall. Mexico imports US corn and has historically turned to South Africa for their white corn needs in short production years, but South Africa also suffered an extreme year and really hasn’t got corn to give. This leaves Mexico as a captive for US suppliers.

France is set to get even more rain, with the longer-range forecasts predicting wetter conditions right into late June. Conversely, the Black Sea is looking at drier and warmer temperatures for the same period. Even with the lack of rainfall and higher temperatures since the beginning of March, the NDVI for the main winter wheat-growing areas is sitting on average for this time of year. The kicker will be the damage caused by the recent frosts, which will take time to realise.

Excessive rainfall that is restricting row-crop planting is stretching right through the SRW areas. The wheat crop is currently in the midst of flowering, and the wet, humid conditions have increased the head blight forecast.

In Canada, Sask Ag pegged Saskatchewan spring wheat planting at 36 percent complete, still below the average of 55pc, but catching up. Alberta was pegged at 23pc complete.

Australia

Western Australian current crop wheat values have taken a breather over the past few days, on the back of a stronger dollar and with offshore futures dropping from their recent highs.

The WA wheat export program will be in excess of 85pc complete by the end of the month, leaving little work to do and provides support to basis levels.

Malt barley has been the main feature this week, with Maxi1 in Kwinana trading to $375/t FIS levels

New crop  WA bids remain supported for both white grains and oilseeds, attention remains very much on the need for rainfall within the next 30 days.

 

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