Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 November 2021

Lachstock Consulting, November 17, 2021

Wheat, corn, rapeseed and soybean contracts closed lower in overnight trading, while canola rallied. US dollar firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US16 cents per bushel to 810.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 15.25c/bu to 820.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 11.5c/bu to 1015c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €5.75/t to €289/t;
  • Corn December contract down 5.5c/bu to 571c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract down 6c/bu to 1251.25c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$2.90/t to $1015.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract down €4.25/t to €703/t;
  • US dollar index was up 0.4 to 95.9;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.7298;
  • CAD weaker at $1.2567;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1314;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 steady at AU$376/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 steady at $380/t.

International

The “get long commodities and brace for inflation impact” trade took a step back last night as US retail sales outperformed trade estimates. US retail sales rose 1.7 per cent in October versus market expectations of 1.4pc, a solid result compared to the previous months revised 0.8pc increase. Even when motor vehicle sales were removed, wider retail sales outperformed, and the commodity markets took this as an indication inflation has not yet bitten. The US dollar rallied, and commodities were sold. This had little to do with the fundamentals which haven’t changed; wheat balances are tight and, with a question mark over Australian quality, free-on-board values were firm

Russia has indicated it may look at regulating domestic fertiliser, and by creating an indicator that tracks domestic availability, its Agriculture Ministry would potentially freeze supply should it fall below target levels.

Vietnam has lowered its tariffs on wheat, corn and frozen pork, and the wheat tariff will drop to 2pc from 5pc.

Australia

Grower cash boards were slightly firmer again yesterday, wheat by AU$1-$2/t. Barley made the gains and was up $3-4/t across the east coast, and values in WA pushed up to $300/t free in store for barley late in the day. Canola lost ground and was down $10/t, with offshore markets peeling back and local canola harvest getting going again.

New South Wales is a mixed bag, with reports that there is a mixture of quality coming off after the latest rainfall event.  Growers harvesting wheat are having loads that are meeting H2 specifications, and the next load is going AGP. Protein is said to be been holding up, but testweights have suffered, and are largely responsible for downgrades.

Growers are working around the clock where they can to harvest as much grain as they can before the next rain event forecast for coming days.

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